Will Eliezer Yudkowsky be mentioned or quoted in the White House briefing room within 5 years?
144
1kṀ23k
2029
74%
chance
7

From: https://x.com/_ArnaudS_/status/1793209848953233872, clarifying Tyler Cowen's claims.

Resolves YES if either:

  1. An invited participant clearly and unambiguously quotes Eliezer Yudkowsky.

  2. An identifying percentage of his name passes any invited participant's lips for any reason. Doesn't matter what the context is.

Resolves NO if it doesn't.

Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!
Sort by:

How does this resolve if a book or article that Yudkowsky co-wrote is quoted, without Yudkowsky being mentioned specifically? My intuitions are different for If Anyone Builds It, Everyone Dies (yes) and for an article/statement that Yudkowsky co-signed with 100 others (no), so it might be good to get more precise resolution criteria.

What counts as a quote? Must it be clear to the participant that it was Yudkowsky who originated the quote?

@Elspeth The fact that criterion 1 is separate from criterion 2 suggests that clear attribution for the benefit of people in the room isn't required, if the quote is sufficiently unambiguous-from-our-perspective about being a quote from him.

© Manifold Markets, Inc.TermsPrivacy