FTX customers and creditors are likely to be repaid in full, an attorney for debtors told the court: https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/24408442-ftx-trading-ltd-013124-2

"we can now cautiously predict some measure of success. Based on our results to date and current projections we anticipate filing a disclosure statement in February describing how customers and general unsecured creditors, customers and general unsecured creditors with allowed claims, will eventually be paid in full. I would like the Court and stakeholders to understand this not as a guarantee, but as an objective. There is still a great amount of work and risk between us and that result, but we believe the objective is within reach and we have a strategy to achieve it."

Current asks for claims are at 43c. FTX debt is a semi-decent way of expressing a bullish opinion on Anthropic, since the Anthropic shares are a pretty big percent of the estate’s assets at this point and Anthropic is reportedly looking to get valuations of up to $30 billion (!). FTX put in $500m during series B, but it’s unclear what this valuation was at. It was at $4bn in March though.

Is this FTX US?

https://manifold.markets/AmmonLam/what-percent-of-the-deposits-will-f

https://manifold.markets/NathanpmYoung/will-depositors-get-50-of-their-dep

https://manifold.markets/ahalekelly/will-ftx-retail-investors-get-their

https://manifold.markets/JonasVollmer/what-percentage-of-their-money-will

https://manifold.markets/noumena/what-percent-of-2022-ftx-future-fun

https://manifold.markets/getby/when-will-ftxcom-depositors-receive