What % of their deposits will the typical FTX depositor with less than $100k get back? Resolves to %
19
274
410
2026
90%
chance

Worldwide, not just FTX US.

Mar 14, 10:55pm: What % of their deposits will the typical depositor with less than $100k get back? Resolves to % → What % of their deposits will the typical FTX depositor with less than $100k get back? Resolves to %

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FTX customers and creditors are likely to be repaid in full, an attorney for debtors told the court: https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/24408442-ftx-trading-ltd-013124-2

"we can now cautiously predict some measure of success. Based on our results to date and current projections we anticipate filing a disclosure statement in February describing how customers and general unsecured creditors, customers and general unsecured creditors with allowed claims, will eventually be paid in full. I would like the Court and stakeholders to understand this not as a guarantee, but as an objective. There is still a great amount of work and risk between us and that result, but we believe the objective is within reach and we have a strategy to achieve it."

bought Ṁ13 of YES

Current asks for claims are at 43c. FTX debt is a semi-decent way of expressing a bullish opinion on Anthropic, since the Anthropic shares are a pretty big percent of the estate’s assets at this point and Anthropic is reportedly looking to get valuations of up to $30 billion (!). FTX put in $500m during series B, but it’s unclear what this valuation was at. It was at $4bn in March though.

Is this FTX US?