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MANIFOLD
By when will most 50k+ FTX bankruptcy claimants have received their last installment ?
12
Ṁ20kṀ97k
Dec 31
1%
Before July 2025
1.2%
Before Jan 2026
1.7%
Before July 2026
78%
Before Jan 2027

Resolves according to when the US Debtors issue the last reimbursement to the majority of FTX International customers (including claims over $50,000).

It does not matter when the payment is received or whether it is blocked by a third party (e.g. customs or foreign government)

Deadline extends until resolved.

  • Update 2026-07-21 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The market resolution criteria has been updated to focus on when the last reimbursement is issued to the majority of claims over $50,000, rather than a majority of all FTX International customers.

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@ZicoVerona is a majority by customer count sufficient, even if customers with claims over $50k are still receiving installments?

@perfperfperf I'm sorry that my description wasn't clear enough. I'm interested in this question mostly for the 50k+ customers. I changed it from "(including claims over $50,000).", which is ambiguous as you rightly question, to "(the majority of claims over $50,000).". Hopefully that helps.

@ZicoVerona @traders To anyone who holds a position that was understandably based on overall majority of claimants instead of the majority of 50k+ claimants, suggest a mana amount that I should reemburse you.

filled a Ṁ1,000 NO at 31% order

Can we get some of you super-forecasters on this?
I'll add more liquidity.

sold Ṁ146 YES

According to binance in Jan 2025 the last payments could push into 2027.

https://www.binance.com/en/square/post/18419037908377