Yes = Higher %
No = Lower %
This resolves on official news outlets and/or official FTX announcements.
If there are substantial differences in sources regarding the official % or if certain international customers receive different % depending on how much money they held, etc, I will resolve the market in good faith to whatever feels more appropriate (which could be N/A). For example, the average % returned for international customers or the % returned for investors who held less than 500K.
I also have an FTX International account with BUSD in it, so I hope to see, first hand, what % is returned.
1,000For reference. But the Madoff investors had USD controlled by Madoff, non-obvious how much of FTX assets is liquid and convertible. Quite possible also that US investors will be protected and see recoveries from actions under laws that don't apply to international investors. That's just scratching the surface. IMO looking now and then at a Manifold market is about as much effort as is worthwhile for any international FTX investor to put into guessing the answer to this question. Unless you're maybe 90 years old, your effort would be better spent accepting any returns as a pleasant surprise, counting the whole thing as an expensive tuition, and looking to new ways to do whatever you were trying to do with the FTX investment.