Will any FTXFF grantee be legally compelled to return funds due to FTX's bankruptcy?
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Dec 31
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Close date updated to 2024-12-31 3:59 pm

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bought Ṁ150 NO

now that crypto has gone up enough to make all the depositors "whole" (modulo the lawyers freerolling them and only giving them what the crypto was worth back in the depths of the bear market) I don't think charitable contributions are likely to be clawed back

predicts YES

Does this include funds flowing to the FTX bankruptcy estate because a grantee files for bankruptcy and the FTX estate filed an allowed proof of claim against the grantee?

predicts NO

@Jason I don't know the legalese there, but I would assume the direct creditors of the grantee would have a senior claim to the creditors of the grantor, if the latter have any claim at all.

predicts YES

@JonathanRay The grantor's potential fraudulent conveyance or preference claim would presumably make them a general unsecured creditor under US law. But many creditors are neither secured (by a mortgage etc.) or priority (eg certain unpaid employee wages, or taxes) -- and are thus general unsecured creditors too.

predicts NO

Seems like the terms of this are on net narrower than Yud's question, so the probability should be lower. It only includes grants from FTXFF, and only includes legal judgments rather than settlements.

predicts NO

To clarify, "legally compelled" means a judge orders them to return the money and then they return the money. Settling doesn't count. Lots of people settle to make lawsuits go away which would not have prevailed in court.

Does this include regrant recipients?

predicts NO

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