Will any FTXFF grantee be legally compelled to return funds due to FTX's bankruptcy?
36%
chance


Close date updated to 2024-12-31 3:59 pm

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Jason avatar
Jason
is predicting YES at 33%

Does this include funds flowing to the FTX bankruptcy estate because a grantee files for bankruptcy and the FTX estate filed an allowed proof of claim against the grantee?

JonathanRay avatar
Jonathan Ray
is predicting NO at 33%

@Jason I don't know the legalese there, but I would assume the direct creditors of the grantee would have a senior claim to the creditors of the grantor, if the latter have any claim at all.

Jason avatar
Jason
is predicting YES at 33%

@JonathanRay The grantor's potential fraudulent conveyance or preference claim would presumably make them a general unsecured creditor under US law. But many creditors are neither secured (by a mortgage etc.) or priority (eg certain unpaid employee wages, or taxes) -- and are thus general unsecured creditors too.

JonathanRay avatar
Jonathan Ray
is predicting NO at 32%

Seems like the terms of this are on net narrower than Yud's question, so the probability should be lower. It only includes grants from FTXFF, and only includes legal judgments rather than settlements.

JonathanRay avatar
Jonathan Ray
is predicting NO at 34%

To clarify, "legally compelled" means a judge orders them to return the money and then they return the money. Settling doesn't count. Lots of people settle to make lawsuits go away which would not have prevailed in court.

RobiRahman avatar

Does this include regrant recipients?

JonathanRay avatar
Jonathan Ray
is predicting NO at 34%
ManifoldDream avatar

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