Will >5% of >2 FTX political donations received before the 90-day bankruptcy period be clawed back?
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190
2027
26%
chance

Aiming to match this market, but just for donations made before the 90-day bankruptcy period:

Resolves YES if at the end of 2026, there was any successful or still-being-prosecuted attempt to claw back, from more than 2 campaigns or party treasuries or individual politicians, more than 5% of the funds they received from Sam Bankman-Fried or other FTX executives before August 14, 2022

I'll add that it only counts if the donations are returned if they were legally obligated to (politicians may donate them back in order to avoid legal or PR issues, but it only counts if they're doing it because they had to). I will not trade in this market.

Mar 5, 4:00pm: Will >5% of an FTX political donation received before the 90-day bankruptcy period be clawed back? → Will >5% of >2 FTX political donations received before the 90-day bankruptcy period be clawed back?

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bought Ṁ50 of NO

Note that I think the clause "it only counts if the donations are returned if they were legally obligated to" is quite important, but could be hard to adjudicate.

@jack agreed, I might have to resolve this subjectively if there's no litigation - I'll communicate my thinking in the comments before resolving, of course

@berealistic Two suggested guideposts: A partial clawback should be treated as a litigation settlement unless there is clear evidence to the contrary (e.g., it was all the money the PAC had left after winddown). A full clawback under $10001(?) should not be treated as litigation motivated absent clear evidence to the contrary such as a complaint being filed -- a rational litigant would otherwise likely conclude that FTX's litigation cost would exceed the potential recovery.

@Jason Thanks!

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