A lot of organizations that received FTXFF$ this year are in a tight spot right now. Resolves to percent in July 2024, to allow time for reporting. Here are the list of current grantees: https://archive.ph/W3HRR
RESOLUTION MECHANISM: To shirk tedium, I will tip Ṁ50 per comment which reports that an organization received funding. If you wish to subsidize this effort, tip the market [ideally sooner, so I can run off with your money and forget about this whole endeavor].
1,000Not sure what the base rate here is, but I'd guess that a lot fewer orgs will make it than if FTXFF continued to exist; perhaps other EA orgs will bail them out. Not sure if that's good or bad on net; some of those orgs are doing valuable work, nevertheless I think it would cause some degree of reputation laundering on the part of the FTX grantees and especially regrantees, who got their initial chance from FTXFF's more moonshot approach and might not have passed muster at other EA funders, but now will hold onto funding because of <vague handwaving at implied social motives>.
@noumena actually, I think it is still probably positive EV even if the shakeout won't be as harsh as it ought to be from an efficiency standpoint.