Any payload delivered to its intended orbit for its customer will count as a Yes.
Project Kuiper counts for New Glenn
Starlink counts for Starship
Update 2025-13-01 (PST): - 1st Blue Ring launch does not count.
Update 2025-16-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Clarifications:
Blue Ring pathfinder is not considered a commercial payload since it is not a functional satellite.
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https://nextspaceflight.com/launches/details/7628
Thu Jan 16, 2025 07:03 GMT
Blue Ring Pathfinder (DarkSky-1)
Maiden flight of the New Glenn launch vehicle. Will carry the prototype DarkSky-1 Blue Ring Pathfinder, consisting of communications array, power systems, and a flight computer affixed to a secondary payload adapter ring, remaining attached to the 2nd stage. This launch will serve as New Glenn's first National Security Space Launch certification flight.
It is a demo / prototype rather than useful but that doesn't stop it being a "commercial payload" If a customer pays them to take a demo payload which isn't useful itself but is meant to test various thing for a future useful launch payload then I would say that is a commercial payload. In this case an independent buyer would probably get a deeply discounted price because it is on the first launch so risky. So perhaps the price that would be charged if independent would be too cheap to make it commercial?
(So while I don't agree with the 'because it is not functional' reasoning given, the decision seems defensible and I don't want this changed.)
Perhaps going forward I think it would be useful to clarify if the customer has to be independent of Blue Origin. or otherwise clarify what commercial means.
The Blue Ring Pathfinder is a technology demonstration developed by Blue Origin’s In-Space Systems business unit. So future Blue Ring missions (as opposed to blue ring pathfinder demo) might still be launching for themselves and so it isn't commercial? Or maybe if launched for themselves it can still be commercial? Or perhaps only commercial if it is expected to be a profitable operation? (that may take years before we find out?)
@ChristopherRandles aiui from discussions below, a full blue ring would count if it's deployable, since it would basically be an independent satellite.
@ChristopherRandles Since it’s an internal launch and it’s not being used for a commercial purpose then it is not a commercial payload.
If they had been paid by a hypothetical customer to launch their little comms unit then I would consider it a commercial launch.
@NGK They're launching a "Blue Ring pathfinder", and the payload won't release from the second stage. It's also not really all that functional;
The demonstrator includes a communications array, power systems, and a flight computer affixed to a secondary payload adapter ring. The pathfinder will validate Blue Ring’s communications capabilities from orbit to ground. The mission will also test its in-space telemetry, tracking and command hardware, and ground-based radiometric tracking that will be used on the future Blue Ring production space vehicle. The pathfinder will remain onboard New Glenn’s second stage for the duration of an expected six-hour mission.
What blue ring actually is, insofar as I understand it, is a fancy payload adapter with comms for rideshares. Edit: See next comment
https://www.blueorigin.com/news/blue-ring-pathfinder-payload
I'm honestly not sure anymore if this should count. It doesn't really feel like an actual payload. But maybe it's too late now to change the ruling.
About Blue Ring
Blue Ring addresses two of the most difficult challenges in spaceflight today: Growing space infrastructure and the need for increased mobility in space. The spacecraft’s ability to maneuver to multiple orbits and locations, deploy and host payloads, and perform onboard computing and communications will enable groundbreaking missions for a variety of customers.
The multi-mission space mobility platform can deliver and host 3,000 kilograms of payloads across 13 ports to destinations in GEO, cislunar, and interplanetary space. Blue Ring's ports can accommodate ESPA and ESPA Grande class satellites and up to a 2.5 metric ton payload on its top deck.
So an actual Blue Ring would be a kind of space tug. But the Blue Ring pathfinder is just a brick with comms, and it's not getting deployed.
Disregard this. I did not read your comment properly. I agree - This does not count as a commercial launch.
@Mqrius I agree that this rides the line. I am still leaning towards counting Blue Ring since it does provide a commercial service for customers in space. You can inquire about these services on BO’s website here.
https://www.blueorigin.com/blue-ring
I’m willing to hear what other people think. I’m also willing to pass off the resolution to mod/3rd party for this one if necessary. Since I am the biggest Yes holder and have been betting under the assumption that Blue Ring counts.
the argument is solid, but i did bet according to your comment @NGK 4 months ago stating it would count. but also since this info was not available 4 months ago, i am willing to lose the mana.
@notarealuser back then they were planning to launch an actual blue ring, not a pathfinder, if I recall correctly. They've been saying pathfinder since... December? Maybe November? I didn't really notice when they switched.
@Mqrius I don’t even know when the plan changed to be honest. I always thought it was a full Blue Ring satellite. Hence my comment above. And before that it was supposed to be ESCAPADE.
It could be that it was always a pathfinder since the original teeet says “Blue Ring technology” which could just mean comms etc.
@notarealuser since it isn’t a functional blue ring satellite I think it stands that it is not a “commercial” payload.
@NGK This seems like the important question. ESCAPADE is a government satellite, which in industry parlance would often be considered "civil" instead of "commercial" space. But, it's for a paying customer (NASA), which I assume is what most traders have in mind for a market like this. It's not a dummy payload.
500 Yes at 15% if anyone wants it