Will New Glenn launch a commercial payload before Starship?
SpaceSpacexRocketsBlue Origin
Basic
27
Ṁ847
2026
42%
chance

Any payload delivered to its intended orbit for its customer will count as a Yes.

  • Project Kuiper counts for New Glenn

  • Starlink counts for Starship

Get Ṁ600 play money

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Does ESCAPADE count?

@NGK This seems like the important question. ESCAPADE is a government satellite, which in industry parlance would often be considered "civil" instead of "commercial" space. But, it's for a paying customer (NASA), which I assume is what most traders have in mind for a market like this. It's not a dummy payload.

My intention was to use commercial as any payload. Happy to hear if either of you think otherwise. My description does state “any payload delivered to its intended orbit”.

I think it should count

500 Yes at 15% if anyone wants it

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