Will New Glenn launch a commercial payload before Starship?
55
1kṀ11k
2026
91%
chance

Any payload delivered to its intended orbit for its customer will count as a Yes.

  • Project Kuiper counts for New Glenn

  • Starlink counts for Starship

  • Update 2025-13-01 (PST): - 1st Blue Ring launch does not count.

  • Update 2025-16-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Clarifications:

    • Blue Ring pathfinder is not considered a commercial payload since it is not a functional satellite.

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