@NGK They're launching a "Blue Ring pathfinder", and the payload won't release from the second stage. It's also not really all that functional;

The demonstrator includes a communications array, power systems, and a flight computer affixed to a secondary payload adapter ring. The pathfinder will validate Blue Ring’s communications capabilities from orbit to ground. The mission will also test its in-space telemetry, tracking and command hardware, and ground-based radiometric tracking that will be used on the future Blue Ring production space vehicle. The pathfinder will remain onboard New Glenn’s second stage for the duration of an expected six-hour mission. 

What blue ring actually is, insofar as I understand it, is a fancy payload adapter with comms for rideshares. Edit: See next comment

https://www.blueorigin.com/news/blue-ring-pathfinder-payload

I'm honestly not sure anymore if this should count. It doesn't really feel like an actual payload. But maybe it's too late now to change the ruling.

About Blue Ring

Blue Ring addresses two of the most difficult challenges in spaceflight today: Growing space infrastructure and the need for increased mobility in space. The spacecraft’s ability to maneuver to multiple orbits and locations, deploy and host payloads, and perform onboard computing and communications will enable groundbreaking missions for a variety of customers. 

The multi-mission space mobility platform can deliver and host 3,000 kilograms of payloads across 13 ports to destinations in GEO, cislunar, and interplanetary space. Blue Ring's ports can accommodate ESPA and ESPA Grande class satellites and up to a 2.5 metric ton payload on its top deck.

So an actual Blue Ring would be a kind of space tug. But the Blue Ring pathfinder is just a brick with comms, and it's not getting deployed.

Disregard this. I did not read your comment properly. I agree - This does not count as a commercial launch.

@Mqrius I agree that this rides the line. I am still leaning towards counting Blue Ring since it does provide a commercial service for customers in space. You can inquire about these services on BO’s website here.

https://www.blueorigin.com/blue-ring

I’m willing to hear what other people think. I’m also willing to pass off the resolution to mod/3rd party for this one if necessary. Since I am the biggest Yes holder and have been betting under the assumption that Blue Ring counts.

fwiw I didn't get any benefits out of arguing the No side — I sold my Yes but that's it. I try to only bet on real events, not on market interpretations. Now that your verdict is clear I've picked up some No.

Oh no they postponed the launch. My stocks!!!!

Since Starlink counts for Starship, I assume Blue Ring counts for Blue Origin?

@Mqrius Yep Blue Ring counts.

Does ESCAPADE count?

@NGK This seems like the important question. ESCAPADE is a government satellite, which in industry parlance would often be considered "civil" instead of "commercial" space. But, it's for a paying customer (NASA), which I assume is what most traders have in mind for a market like this. It's not a dummy payload.

My intention was to use commercial as any payload. Happy to hear if either of you think otherwise. My description does state “any payload delivered to its intended orbit”.

I think it should count

500 Yes at 15% if anyone wants it