Which rocket will reach orbit and deploy a meaningful payload first (not just a mass simulator)? Everyday Astronaut 2024
Basic
6
Ṁ5465resolved Jan 8
100%99.9%
Vulcan
0.0%
Starship
0.0%
New Glenn
0.0%
Ariane 6
This market is based on a poll posted on X by Tim Dodd the Everyday Astronaut.
If the result is ambiguous, I may use Everyday Astronaut's followup video, if there is one, as a source for resolution.
See the full set of markets on this dashboard.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
1,0003.00Related questions
Related questions
Which of these rockets will reach orbit in 2024?
When will Starship first launch with useful payload?
What's the furthest milestone we'll see Rocket Lab achieve with their Neutron rocket? (Everyday Astronaut 2024)
Which of these will successfully land on the Moon in 2024?
🚀Will there be a successful orbital launch of a new rocket (=not Vega) by a european provider by the end of 2024? 🛰
54% chance
How many orbital launch attempts will we see in 2024 around the world? (Everyday Astronaut 2024 Predictions)
Will SpinLaunch successfully throw a rocket up to orbital boost range by the end of 2032?
28% chance
Will an organization besides SpaceX successfully develop a resuable orbital rocket booster launch system by end of 2026?
56% chance
Which of these French rocket start-ups will achieve orbit before 2029?
Which of these rockets will be the last to make its maiden flight in 2024?