Resolves to all correct answers. Either the payload or the uppermost stage must be reported to reach orbit*.
Feel free to suggest additions; I will add them, but there should be at least some question about whether or not a launch will happen in 2024 (am more happy to entertain speculation on the unlikely to launch end)
*Starship near-orbits don't count
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"China launched its first state-owned reusable rocket, the Long March 12A, from the Jiuquan Satellite Launch Center in northwestern China on Monday. The mission succeeded in orbital insertion and payload deployment but failed to recover the first-stage booster during a vertical landing attempt 250 kilometers downrange."
https://dataconomy.com/2025/12/23/china-fails-to-recover-booster-on-first-flight-of-long-march-12a-rocket/
@JoshuaWilkes s ^ Long March 12A can resolve yes
Iran and North Korea perhaps don't give usual accessible notices but rockets on 1% may be sufficiently clear to start resolving them no?
@JoshuaWilkes Zhuque-3 resolves YES!!! First stage made it through re-entry too which is pretty impressive for a first attempt, I believe it failed on landing burn ignition
@Nat will just wait a bit in case of who knows what but I'll resolve this YES within the next couple of days
Additional confirmation from LandSpace
@JoshuaWilkes does the 5B count or does it have to be strictly the 5?
And likewise for Zhuque 2 does the 2E count or just the 2?
LVM3 has a mission planned for Q1 according to Wikipedia. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_LVM3_launches#Future_missions
Presumably Orbex Prime, RFA One, and ISAR Spectrum should each individually be lower than the Yes option on https://manifold.markets/Multicore/will-a-new-european-launch-provider