Which of these rockets will reach orbit in 2025?
34
3.2kṀ15k
Dec 31
90%
LVM3
66%
Nuri
47%
Tianlong 3
44%
Zhuque 3
38%
Proton M
36%
Ceres-2
27%
Qased
24%
Kinetica-2
23%
Pallas 1
23%
Chollima 1
20%
Kairos
20%
RFA One
19%
Vikram 1
17%
Long March 12A
16%
Isar Spectrum
8%
Rocket Lab Neutron
7%
Hyperbola-3
6%
Nebula-1
4%
Gilmour Space Eris
4%
Long March 10

Resolves to all correct answers. Either the payload or the uppermost stage must be reported to reach orbit*.

Feel free to suggest additions; I will add them, but there should be at least some question about whether or not a launch will happen in 2024 (am more happy to entertain speculation on the unlikely to launch end)

*Starship near-orbits don't count

Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!
Sort by:
opened a Ṁ500 YES at 98% order

Looks like the Long March 12A may have had a failed hop test

bought Ṁ100 YES

@JoshuaWilkes does the 5B count or does it have to be strictly the 5?

And likewise for Zhuque 2 does the 2E count or just the 2?

bought Ṁ34 YES

New Glenn resolves Yes

LVM3 has a mission planned for Q1 according to Wikipedia. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_LVM3_launches#Future_missions

Presumably Orbex Prime, RFA One, and ISAR Spectrum should each individually be lower than the Yes option on https://manifold.markets/Multicore/will-a-new-european-launch-provider

© Manifold Markets, Inc.TermsPrivacy