Which of these rockets will reach orbit in 2025?

3.2kṀ7071

Dec 31

93%

Falcon Heavy

91%

Starship

90%

Long March 5

87%

LVM3

74%

Zhuque 2

66%

Nuri

44%

Tianlong 3

44%

Isar Spectrum

39%

Ariane 64

38%

Proton M

37%

Long March 12A

37%

Zhuque 3

37%

Gilmour Space Eris

36%

Pallas 1

35%

Chollima 1

35%

Vikram 1

34%

RFA One

31%

Kairos

30%

Qased

29%

Ceres-2

Resolves to all correct answers. Either the payload or the uppermost stage must be reported to reach orbit*.

Feel free to suggest additions; I will add them, but there should be at least some question about whether or not a launch will happen in 2024 (am more happy to entertain speculation on the unlikely to launch end)

*Starship near-orbits don't count

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opened a Ṁ500 YES at 98% order

@JoshuaWilkes had a successful launch on Sunday.

Looks like the Long March 12A may have had a failed hop test

bought Ṁ100 YES

@JoshuaWilkes does the 5B count or does it have to be strictly the 5?

And likewise for Zhuque 2 does the 2E count or just the 2?

bought Ṁ34 YES

New Glenn resolves Yes

https://x.com/raz_liu/status/1876943341436194850

LVM3 has a mission planned for Q1 according to Wikipedia. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_LVM3_launches#Future_missions

Presumably Orbex Prime, RFA One, and ISAR Spectrum should each individually be lower than the Yes option on https://manifold.markets/Multicore/will-a-new-european-launch-provider