Resolves to all correct answers. Either the payload or the uppermost stage must be reported to reach orbit*.
Feel free to suggest additions; I will add them, but there should be at least some question about whether or not a launch will happen in 2024 (am more happy to entertain speculation on the unlikely to launch end)
*Starship near-orbits don't count
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@JoshuaWilkes Zhuque-3 resolves YES!!! First stage made it through re-entry too which is pretty impressive for a first attempt, I believe it failed on landing burn ignition
@Nat will just wait a bit in case of who knows what but I'll resolve this YES within the next couple of days
Additional confirmation from LandSpace
@JoshuaWilkes does the 5B count or does it have to be strictly the 5?
And likewise for Zhuque 2 does the 2E count or just the 2?
LVM3 has a mission planned for Q1 according to Wikipedia. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_LVM3_launches#Future_missions
Presumably Orbex Prime, RFA One, and ISAR Spectrum should each individually be lower than the Yes option on https://manifold.markets/Multicore/will-a-new-european-launch-provider