Which of these rockets will reach orbit in 2025?
38
3.2kṀ20k
Dec 31
99%
LVM3
98%
Nuri
48%
Tianlong 3
46%
Zhuque 3
45%
Long March 12A
33%
Ceres-2
30%
Kinetica-2
9%
Isar Spectrum
7%
Qased
7%
Proton M
7%
Chollima 1
7%
Vikram 1
7%
Hyperbola-3
6%
Nebula-1
5%
Pallas 1
5%
Kairos
4%
Long March 10
3%
ABL RS1
2%
Gilmour Space Eris
2%
Astra Rocket 4

Resolves to all correct answers. Either the payload or the uppermost stage must be reported to reach orbit*.

Feel free to suggest additions; I will add them, but there should be at least some question about whether or not a launch will happen in 2024 (am more happy to entertain speculation on the unlikely to launch end)

*Starship near-orbits don't count

Technology
Space
Rockets
Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!

People are also trading

Which will be the first hybrid-propellant rocket to reach orbit?
Will a new European launch provider reach orbit in 2025? (Everyday Astronaut 2025 Predictions)
How many orbital launch attempts will we see in 2025 around the world? (Everyday Astronaut 2025 Predictions)
Will an organization besides SpaceX successfully develop a resuable orbital rocket booster launch system by end of 2026?
89% chance
Will a spacecraft powered by SABRE engines reach orbit before 2035?
8% chance
Will the Vast Haven-1 successfully reach orbit atop any SpaceX rocket, at any point in 2025?
1% chance
Which of these will successfully land on the Moon in 2025?
Which of these French rocket start-ups will achieve orbit before 2029?
Will a rocket launched from Taiwan reach orbit before the end of 2030?
10% chance
Which orbital booster will hold the reuse turnaround time record, as of EOY 2026?
Sort by:
🤖

Meowdy! Lots of launches lined up with some already tasting success—Nuri, Long March 5, Zhuque 2, New Glenn, LVM3 look promising. I’ll revisit later tonight to sharpen these purr-obabilities!

bought Ṁ400 YES

@JoshuaWilkes Nuri can resolve YES https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuri_(rocket)#Launch_history:~:text=November%2026%2C%202025%2C%2016%3A13%5B44%5D

bought Ṁ315 YES

LVM-3 launch success

@JoshuaWilkes

Zhuque 2 https://nextspaceflight.com/launches/details/7853

Long March 5 https://nextspaceflight.com/launches/details/7841

opened a Ṁ500 YES at 98% order

@JoshuaWilkes had a successful launch on Sunday.

Looks like the Long March 12A may have had a failed hop test

bought Ṁ100 YES

@JoshuaWilkes does the 5B count or does it have to be strictly the 5?

And likewise for Zhuque 2 does the 2E count or just the 2?

bought Ṁ34 YES

New Glenn resolves Yes

https://x.com/raz_liu/status/1876943341436194850

LVM3 has a mission planned for Q1 according to Wikipedia. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_LVM3_launches#Future_missions

Presumably Orbex Prime, RFA One, and ISAR Spectrum should each individually be lower than the Yes option on https://manifold.markets/Multicore/will-a-new-european-launch-provider

People are also trading

Which will be the first hybrid-propellant rocket to reach orbit?
Will a new European launch provider reach orbit in 2025? (Everyday Astronaut 2025 Predictions)
How many orbital launch attempts will we see in 2025 around the world? (Everyday Astronaut 2025 Predictions)
Will an organization besides SpaceX successfully develop a resuable orbital rocket booster launch system by end of 2026?
89% chance
Will a spacecraft powered by SABRE engines reach orbit before 2035?
8% chance
Will the Vast Haven-1 successfully reach orbit atop any SpaceX rocket, at any point in 2025?
1% chance
Which of these will successfully land on the Moon in 2025?
Which of these French rocket start-ups will achieve orbit before 2029?
Will a rocket launched from Taiwan reach orbit before the end of 2030?
10% chance
Which orbital booster will hold the reuse turnaround time record, as of EOY 2026?
© Manifold Markets, Inc.•Terms•Privacy