Which rocket will launch from Earth with humans on board first?
21
1kṀ4384
2032
54%
Starship
5%
Vulcan
37%
New Glenn
4%
None will ever launch with humans

Market resolves once one of these launches with humans on board. Launch doesn't have to be successful. Launch doesn't have to be orbital (point-to-point counts). Launch does have to be the full stack (only second stage of Starship doesn't count)

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SpaceX
Commercial spaceflight
Blue Origin
ULA
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For those of you who think New Glenn has a decent shot of launching a crewed spacecraft, which do you have in mind? Has Blue Origin announced one yet? Something made by a third party?

@DanHomerick it might launch Orion if SLS gets canceled: https://x.com/SciGuySpace/status/1864744906603848130

@dp9000 thanks!

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