Which rocket will launch from Earth with humans on board first?
23
Ṁ1000Ṁ44752032
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
52%
Starship
5%
Vulcan
40%
New Glenn
4%
None will ever launch with humans
Market resolves once one of these launches with humans on board. Launch doesn't have to be successful. Launch doesn't have to be orbital (point-to-point counts). Launch does have to be the full stack (only second stage of Starship doesn't count)
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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@DanHomerick it might launch Orion if SLS gets canceled: https://x.com/SciGuySpace/status/1864744906603848130
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