When will Blue Origin reach orbit?
10
140Ṁ2252101
2025
expected
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Will resolve when Blue Origin has a successful orbital flight and return to Earth (even if the landing system is not perfect). If Blue Origin dissolves, or stops trying, or etc. this market will resolve to MAX, so if you want to bet NO, that is the same as HIGHER
If not resolving to MAX, market will resolve to YEAR + ((DAY - 1) / length(YEAR))
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000Sort by:
@LivInTheLookingGlass The bounds are way too big, which makes it not worth it to adjust it by a year up or down: big investment for almost no payoff. For a market like this I would have made it 2022—2027, and if it's later than that it would resolve to 2027.
But in general binary yes/no markets tend to work better in my experience
People are also trading
Related questions
By which Flight of Starship will it reach orbit?
What will be the name of the third Blue Origin rocket?
Will Blue Origin land on the moon before July 4th, 2025?
1% chance
Will Blue Origin ever be worth more than SpaceX before 2040?
33% chance
When will Starship reach orbit?
Will Blue Origin's first Blue Moon HLS mission successfully land on the moon?
66% chance
Before which Starship flight will SpaceX first announce they will *attempt* at least one orbit?
Will the first successful Artemis crewed lunar landing be done using a Blue Origin lander?
20% chance
Will Starship land on the moon before Blue Origin does?
38% chance
Which of these rockets will reach orbit in 2025?