Will SpaceX's HLS uncrewed demo launch before 2026?
Will SpaceX's HLS uncrewed demo launch before 2026?
26
1kṀ11k2026
1.5%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Takeoff counts as a launch.
Currently scheduled for 2024 according to NASA's timeline.
/Sailfish/will-spacexs-hls-lander-launch-by-2
/Mqrius/will-spacexs-hls-uncrewed-demo-laun
/Mqrius/will-spacexs-hls-uncrewed-demo-laun-267f101c256c
See also:
Artemis 2 timeline: /Mqrius/will-artemis-ii-launch-before-2026
Artemis 3 timeline: /Mqrius/will-a-human-walk-on-the-moon-again
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000Sort by:
predictedNO 1y
I'm removing the part of the criteria that says "Release of the launch clamps after ignition counts as a launch."
Reason for this is that the launch clamps apparently open well before the launch, and Starship is basically freestanding for a while, and they can still scrub from that state. Launch will now be actual takeoff unless we find a better point to hinge the market on.
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
People are also trading
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
Related questions
Will SpaceX announce a revised timeline for its first crewed Mars mission before August 25, 2025?
58% chance
Will SpaceX send a Starship to Mars before 2028?
25% chance
Will SpaceX's HLS uncrewed demo launch before 2027?
22% chance
Will SpaceX put their HLS lander on the Moon by end of 2025?
1% chance
Will SpaceX launch a mission to Hubble before 2026
4% chance
Will SpaceX successfully conduct a crewed mission to Mars before 2035?
25% chance
Will SpaceX launch a reused Super Heavy rocket booster successfully by the end of 2025?
71% chance
Will SpaceX successfully land a crewed mission on Mars by the end of 2025?
1% chance
Will SpaceX launch a Starship to Mars by the end of 2026?
12% chance
Will SpaceX launch a reused Super Heavy rocket booster successfully by the end of 2026?
99% chance