Will SpaceX's HLS uncrewed demo launch before 2026?
26
1kṀ11kresolved Dec 11
Resolved
NO1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Takeoff counts as a launch.
Currently scheduled for 2024 according to NASA's timeline.
/Sailfish/will-spacexs-hls-lander-launch-by-2
/Mqrius/will-spacexs-hls-uncrewed-demo-laun
/Mqrius/will-spacexs-hls-uncrewed-demo-laun-267f101c256c
See also:
Artemis 2 timeline: /Mqrius/will-artemis-ii-launch-before-2026
Artemis 3 timeline: /Mqrius/will-a-human-walk-on-the-moon-again
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ417 | |
| 2 | Ṁ261 | |
| 3 | Ṁ191 | |
| 4 | Ṁ47 | |
| 5 | Ṁ46 |
Sort by:
I'm removing the part of the criteria that says "Release of the launch clamps after ignition counts as a launch."
Reason for this is that the launch clamps apparently open well before the launch, and Starship is basically freestanding for a while, and they can still scrub from that state. Launch will now be actual takeoff unless we find a better point to hinge the market on.
People are also trading
Related questions
Will SpaceX launch a mission to Hubble before 2026
1% chance
Will SpaceX put their HLS lander on the Moon by end of 2025?
1% chance
Will SpaceX's HLS uncrewed demo launch before 2027?
2% chance
Will SpaceX launch a reused Super Heavy rocket booster successfully by the end of 2025?
1% chance
Will SpaceX successfully land a crewed mission on Mars by the end of 2025?
1% chance
Will SpaceX successfully conduct a crewed mission to Mars before 2035?
11% chance
Will SpaceX launch a Starship to Mars by the end of 2026?
9% chance
Will SpaceX send a Starship to Mars before 2028?
12% chance
Will SpaceX IPO before the end of 2026?
26% chance
Will Haven-1 launch in 2026 or earlier?
63% chance