Resolution criteria
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a New Glenn rocket completes a successful liftoff from a launch pad within six months of the current date (October 21, 2026). The launch is considered to have occurred once the rocket lifts off under its own power.
Background
New Glenn is a heavy-lift, partially reusable launch vehicle developed by Blue Origin. As of April 2026, the vehicle has completed three orbital flight attempts. The most recent mission (NG-3) occurred on April 19, 2026, and successfully demonstrated the first reuse of a first-stage booster, although the upper stage failed to deliver its satellite payload to the intended orbit. Future missions are planned to support commercial and government payloads, including Amazon's Kuiper constellation and NASA lunar missions.
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Trader | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ242 | |
| 2 | Ṁ22 | |
| 3 | Ṁ1 | |
| 4 | Ṁ0 | |
| 5 | Ṁ0 |
People are also trading
On 16th Oct they showed pictures stacking 7th (of 9) launch tower section. There is lots to do after finishing stacking the launch tower. Still aiming for EOY for return to flight. I remain dubious this will be possible by 31 Dec 2026 but who knows maybe they do have a detailed plan and remain on track even if Berger's Law suggests a delay. (Strictly Berger's Law only applies to new launch vehicles and New Glenn has launched before but a destroyed pad might be even more susceptible to delay?)
21 Oct i.e. today or tomorrow? Definitely no chance. With no planned launch date & time, this might as well resolve.
It seems like the next launches would either be the Blue Moon Pathfinder NET 2026 and a bunch of Amazon Leo/Kuiper launches all NET 2026.
Actually, wikipedia is claiming four more launches this year:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_Glenn
I wouldn't be surprised if they all slipped, at least past these six months.
I think there has only been one booster that's been reused, Never Tell Me The Odds, and that had a turnaround of 157 days.
I think the only booster that's known for a upcoming flight is GS1-7E03 "No, It's Necessary" and that was "Almost done" 10 days ago:
https://x.com/davill/status/2042652185662726219
This is a bit of a coin toss to me