Here's a related market, but without the possibility of N/A. Basically situations where this market would N/A, mine will resolve No

This market is so weird because of the N/A criterion. Like I just don't understand enough about the inner workings of Labour to know whether it's more likely for Starmer to not stand in a leadership election vs announce resignation when somebody actually gets the numbers (but before there's a formal challenge)

@archvenison the NA criterion makes it clear what is precisely we are trying to predict here. whether Starmer will contest challenge conditional on the challenge occurs.

@Mochi I understand. My issue is that I think it gets muddied by the fact that whether there is a challenge (formally) depends to a large extent on whether Starmer wants to fight the challenge (colloquially).

So a big part of this market becomes: conditional on Starmer giving up, is there a formal challenge. Which is more about the internal workings of the Labour Party than about Starmer's personal intentions.

Which to be clear is totally fine, but it's not something I have a very good handle on. (And I want the answer to the other question, which is why I made my own market)

@Mochi If Starmer resigns without a formal leadership challenge, I assume that’s N/A?

@archvenison correct