Will Keir Starmer be on the ballot in the next Labour leadership election?
9
Ṁ100Ṁ194Dec 31
34%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
This market will resolve when the UK Labour Party holds its next leadership election, and I can figure out who is on the ballot. I'm trying to get at whether Starmer will contest a leadership challenge without getting bogged down by details of procedure.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Market context
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000Sort by:
Another way to put this is that I'm trying to get at whether Starmer will fight a challenge to the end, in the colloquial meaning of the word challenge (rather than it's formal meaning within the Labour Party rules)
People are also trading
Related questions
[ACX 2026] Will Keir Starmer cease to be Prime Minister of the UK during 2026?
81% chance
When will Keir Starmer be replaced as Prime Minister of the UK?
Which Labour MP(s) will mount a leadership challenge against Keir Starmer? [Add Answers]
Will Keir Starmer resign in 2026?
66% chance
Who will be the next UK Prime Minister after Keir Starmer?
Will Keir Starmer lead the Labour party into the next General Election?
10% chance
When will Keir Starmer stop being leader of the Labour Party?
11/2/26
If Keir Starmer ceases to be Prime Minister in 2026, will Labour win the next UK general election?
34% chance
Will Keir Starmer lose his seat at the next general election?
58% chance
Will Starmer contest a leadership challenge?
74% chance