Will Keir Starmer be on the ballot in the next Labour leadership election?

Question

This market will resolve when the UK Labour Party holds its next leadership election, and I can figure out who is on the ballot. I'm trying to get at whether Starmer will contest a leadership challenge without getting bogged down by details of procedure.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Probably not — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 34% chance (9 traders, as of Jun 4, 2026).