Will I give a shit about any EA scandal throughout the next five years?
11
193
2028
19%
chance

"Give a shit" implying the scandal satisfies any one of the following conditions:

  • Reveals large scale fraud on behalf of EA charities with the aim of making their work seem more net-positive than it actually is

  • Significantly impacts my opinion of how effective marginal donations to EA charities are in improving the world along my values

  • Causes me to stop donating to its recommended organizations indefinitely, out of unwillingness to associate with EA or otherwise

  • Is instrumental in convincing me that charity evaluation, X-risk analysis, or longtermism is irrecoverably toxic or absurd

  • Is instrumental in convincing me that the "EA community", inasmuch as such a thing exists, satisfies the definition of a cult to such an extent that it oughtn't.

"Imply" meaning there are probably ways to resolve this market YES not listed here, and I'm open to such resolutions, but it doesn't sound to me at present like they're likely enough to warrant a specific bulletin.

I am capable of staring into the abyss. If I do actually end up giving a shit, in contrast to my expectations, this market will get resolved YES.

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If I do actually end up giving a shit, in contrast to my expectations, this market will get resolved NO.

hmm shouldn't that be "will get resolved YES"?