Will there be another EA billionaire by the end of 2025?

1kṀ16k

resolved Nov 19

Resolved

YES

ALL

They don't need to donate their fortune by then, just someone who is significantly involved in the EA movement who commits to donating a significant portion of their fortune to EA causes. Forbes must estimate their net worth to be greater than $1B.

Market context

Get

1,000

to start trading!

🏅 Top traders

#	Name	Total profit
1		Ṁ395
2		Ṁ245
3		Ṁ100
4		Ṁ25
5		Ṁ24

People are also trading

Will there be a trillionaire by the end of 2026?

55% chance

Will there be a trillionaire (USD) by EOY 2029?

78% chance

Will there be a trillionaire by June 2026?

35% chance

Will any individual reach a total of $1 billion donated to EA aligned charities by the end of 2026?

90% chance

Will an EA who had <$100M in Feb 28 2021 become a billionaire (in 2021 dollars) by Feb 28 2031, by means other than crypto or inheritance?

90% chance

Will >10 people committed to EA who had <$100M in Feb 28 2021 become billionaires (in 2021 dollars) by Feb 28 2031, by means other than crypto or inheritance?

40% chance

Will there be a trillionaire by the end of 2028?

64% chance

Will a person who's first EA conference is EAGxBerkeley 2022 achieve a net worth of $1 Billion within 10 years?

7% chance

Will >10 EA who had <$100M in Feb 28 2021 become a billionaire (in 2021 dollars) by Feb 28 2031, *including* crypto or inheritance?

86% chance

Will the first trillionaire be crowned by the end of the decade?

Sort by:

who

sold Ṁ821 YES

Do the anthropic founders count? Three of them are GWWC signers, and each became a billionaire in March this year. They've been trying to distance themselves from EA so that's why I'm hesitant.

@NiplavYushtun I should've kept my share :-|

bought Ṁ500 YES

@MarcusAbramovitch Given that the market you posted has resolved YES, shouldn't this also resolve YES? The resolution criteria on this market seem strictly weaker.