Will a sex scandal negatively affect the reputation of AI xrisk in the next five years?
56
1kṀ2877
2028
71%
chance

I'm specifically asking about a prominent AI researcher (or someone similar) engaging in some problematic sexual activity. Must be publicized in a major news outlet. Resolves subjectively, though I'll avoid betting in the market myself.

AI
Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!

People are also trading

Will AI xrisk seem to be handled seriously by the end of 2026?
24% chance
If someone commits anti-AI-xrisk terrorism, will AI xrisk worries be generally marginalized afterwards?
32% chance
In 2030, will we think FLI's 6 month pause open letter helped or harmed our AI x-risk chances?
Will there be another EA reputational crisis before 2028?
77% chance
Will xAI's acquisition of X be challenged ?
37% chance
Will there be a fraud/criminal scandal that harms EA reputation as much as the FTX crash harmed EA reputation, before 2030?
13% chance
In January 2026, how publicly salient will AI deepfakes/media be, vs AI labor impact, vs AI catastrophic risks?
Will some U.S. investment bankers be negatively affected financially due to AI by end of 2025?
33% chance
Will xAI receive preferential treatment* by the Trump administration in 2025?
40% chance
Will xAI stop working on AI research by 2029?
28% chance
© Manifold Markets, Inc.•Terms•Privacy