Will EA split into 2 parties before 2025?
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Dec 31
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If no other big events happen and there is a big inter-community listening exercise, will EA split into 2 parties before 2025?
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Will there be another EA billionaire by the end of 2025?
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Will there be an EA organisation that donates >$1M/yr using a democratized mechanism before 2025?
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Will there be an EA organisation that donates >$10M/yr using a democratized mechanism before end of 2025?
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Will EA be out of business within 3 years?
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EA will have a noticeably less sexually libertine culture in 2025 for the 90th percentile EA, than before 2023, looking back.
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Will there be an "EA university" or similar institution by 31 December 2027?
15% chance
Will there be any new EA billionaires by 2027?
86% chance
Will there be another EA reputational crisis before 2028?
77% chance
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filled a Ṁ245 NO at 5% order

@NathanpmYoung Before 2025? Or before EOY 2025?

If one of the parties refuse to call themselves 'EA', how does this resolve?

predictedNO

The AI risk party and the everyone else party?

bought Ṁ1 NO

The correct party and the losers who cannot shut up and multiply.

People are also trading

If no other big events happen and there is a big inter-community listening exercise, will EA split into 2 parties before 2025?
12% chance
Will there be another EA billionaire by the end of 2025?
85% chance
Will there be an EA organisation that donates >$1M/yr using a democratized mechanism before 2025?
30% chance
Will there be an EA organisation that donates >$10M/yr using a democratized mechanism before end of 2025?
14% chance
Will EA be out of business within 3 years?
12% chance
Will EA community deploy and actively use a DAO by 2027?
24% chance
EA will have a noticeably less sexually libertine culture in 2025 for the 90th percentile EA, than before 2023, looking back.
59% chance
Will there be an "EA university" or similar institution by 31 December 2027?
15% chance
Will there be any new EA billionaires by 2027?
86% chance
Will there be another EA reputational crisis before 2028?
77% chance
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