Will there be another EA reputational crisis before 2028?
81
338
1.4k
2028
79%
chance

Any event that gets widespread coverage outside of the EA community and significantly damages or has the reasonable potential to damage EA's reputation in general society.

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predicts YES

@IsaacKing How much negative coverage does it need to count as a reputational crisis?

predicts YES

@IsaacKing interesting thread, you may wanna read

as of when I posted this, we see 2.5k likes and ~810k views on the tweet

predicts YES

@firstuserhere Was just going through Andrerj Karpathy's twitter and saw his recent likes (https://twitter.com/karpathy/likes)

bought Ṁ200 of YES

Feels like November last year: A billionaire named Sam that lead a fast-growing multi-billion dollar tech company suddenly was ousted from the company under suspicious circumstances, and Twitter sentiment is turning negative EA

@Simon74fe I saw some reports of the remaining board members specifically denying any connections to EA. Anyone has a source?

predicts NO

@Simon74fe What does this one have to do with EA?

bought Ṁ100 of YES

@IsaacKing The OpenAI board publicly shunning EA when they were known EAs for very long time is relevant

bought Ṁ200 of YES

@firstuserhere Helen Toner and Tasha McCauley are definitely EA

predicts NO

"An EA reputational crisis" does not mean "a reputational crisis that happens to include some EAs".

predicts YES

@IsaacKing True. But sentiment on Twitter post-firing seems to also be turning against EA as a movement. Just search for EA and read some tweets

bought Ṁ10 of YES

There will be a reputational crisis (or multiple ones) because Effective Altruism is a flawed philosophy. Its logical conclusions lead to taking the sort of actions that have already been taken in the movement's name, so of course the movement will continue to have crises. The main reason I see this market resolving no is that the movement might be so discredited that it ceases to exist before it has another crisis.

bought Ṁ32 of NO

@SteveSokolowski Literally every movement ever with an (at least partly) philosophical basis has been based on flawed philosophy, because the unflawed moral philosophy is yet to be invented.

predicts YES

@DavidMathers That may be true, but the literal conclusions that are drawn from following through with the philosophy are that what happens to people alive today doesn't really matter. Not stealing $7 million from me, and directly ruining the lives of my 17 family members, employees, and neighbors, would theoretically be contrary to the philosophy. And that's abhorrent and not in line with what most people consider a good reputation.

predicts YES

@DavidMathers And, by the way, not only is EA abhorrent, it's not even "effective." I had a will giving the $7 million to AI charities when I die, and their own actions hindered their own movement because the money simply doesn't exist anymore.

predicts NO

Sorry for your loss. Genuinely.

Do you have more concrete resolution criteria? Would it have to be SBF level bad and widespread, or is any YouTube influencer who has promoted EA before and then did something stupid already enough to resolve this market to YES?

predicts NO

@ErwinRossen Depends on how widespread the youtuber's thing is. It needs to have people seriously concerned.

bought Ṁ5 of NO

Arb - prob should be higher

Could we specify "widespread coverage" a bit more? eg which news outlets would have to cover the story or how many mainstream news pieces would have to be written about it

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