Will there be another EA FTX-sized scandal before 2027 and if so what will it be?
Plus
23
Ṁ13052026
7%
70%
No FTX-sized scandal
0.7%
Will mackaskill criminal charges
0.7%
MIRI sex scandal/coverup ala Ziz accusations
1.4%
Nick Bostrom racist email
3%
Nepotism hire of a big name EA is found to be taking money/bribes
11%
sexual harassment
7%
OpenAI Board
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
1,0003.00Sort by:
The initial Time article.
The EA forum response/discussion.
I don't want to harmfully stir anything up, but I also would appreciate some markets focused on the social implications now. Some EAs, including myself, who were not particularly shaken by FTX feel much more unsettled being associated with the EA label after the Time article.
Related questions
Related questions
Will FTX be considered "relaunched" at the end of 2024?
4% chance
Will there be a fraud/criminal scandal that harms EA reputation as much as the FTX crash harmed EA reputation, before 2030?
13% chance
Will the FTX collapse still be by far the largest EA related scandal in 2035
55% chance
Will there be another EA reputational crisis before 2028?
79% chance
Will substantial evidence emerge by 2025 that the FTX Future Fund team had strong suspicions of fraudulent activities at FTX before November 2022?
2% chance
Will there be an insider betting/ trading scandal on Manifold before the end of 2024?
30% chance
Will there be another EA billionaire by the end of 2024?
89% chance
Will the Effective Altruism movement suffer a scandal more damaging than the FTX crash by the end of 2024?
5% chance
Will former FTX exec Sam Trabucco be charged with a crime by 2025?
5% chance
Will the Nick Bostrom email seem in hindsight to have caused more internal damage to EA than the FTX crisis?
2% chance