Resolution criteria

• Resolves YES if, by 23:59 Beijing time on March 31, 2026, China issues and puts into effect an official measure that explicitly prohibits exports of tungsten products to the United States or U.S. persons/entities (i.e., a U.S.-specific ban or suspension such that “exports … to the United States shall not be permitted”). Acceptable sources for verification are an announcement/notice on: the Ministry of Commerce (MOFCOM) site, the General Administration of Customs (GACC), or the State Council; reputable wire reports quoting the official directive are acceptable if the primary page is temporarily inaccessible. Examples of tungsten products include APT (HS 2841801000), tungsten oxide (HS 2825901200/2825901910/2825901920), tungsten carbide (HS 2849902000), and solid tungsten/≥80% W alloys (HS 8101940001/8101991001/8101999001). Sources: MOFCOM Feb 4, 2025 Q&A on tungsten controls; translation of Announcement No. 10 (2025) listing covered tungsten items and HS codes; Reuters precedent for U.S.-specific mineral bans. (mofcom.gov.cn)

• Resolves NO if no such U.S.-specific prohibition is in effect by the deadline.

• Exclusions: generic licensing/permit regimes without an explicit U.S.-specific prohibition; global (all-destination) bans; informal non-issuance of licenses; firm-specific bans that do not cover tungsten products as a class.

Background

• On Feb 4, 2025, MOFCOM and GACC imposed export controls (licensing) on tungsten-related items such as APT, tungsten oxides, and tungsten carbides—these were not outright bans. (mofcom.gov.cn)

• The covered tungsten products and indicative HS codes are detailed in Announcement No. 10 (2025). (chemradar.com)

• China has previously used U.S.-destination–specific bans for other minerals (e.g., gallium, germanium, antimony) per MOFCOM directives reported by Reuters. (reuters.com)

Considerations

• “U.S.-specific” requires the United States (or U.S. persons/entities) to be named as the prohibited destination/counterparty in the text of the measure; mere delays or zero licenses do not qualify.

• Verification: check MOFCOM announcement pages and the export control portal for new notices; if inaccessible, contemporaneous Reuters/AP wires quoting the official wording may be used for resolution. (mofcom.gov.cn)

• Update 2026-04-24 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator is proposing to resolve NO. As of the latest check, no U.S.-specific ban on tungsten products has been issued. A January 2026 measure tightened export controls on tungsten products (APT, tungsten oxide, tungsten carbide) but targeted Japan (military end users), with no mention of the United States in any official ban.

• Update 2026-04-25 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator is proposing to cancel (resolve N/A) this market rather than resolving it YES or NO.

• Update 2026-04-26 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator is proposing to resolve this market N/A (cancel) rather than YES or NO.

• Update 2026-04-27 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator is resolving this market NO. As of the deadline, no U.S.-specific prohibition on tungsten exports was issued. MOFCOM Announcement No. 68 (2025) established a state trading management regime for tungsten exports in 2026–2027, not an outright ban, and no official sources reference a U.S.-specific prohibition.