Resolution Criteria:

This market resolves YES if, by December 31, 2026, the Chinese government (e.g., NDRC, MIIT, State Council, or other central authority) officially announces or implements a hard national ceiling on refined copper smelting/refining capacity or annual production output.

This must be modeled after the aluminum sector's 45 million tonne annual capacity cap (introduced in 2017), meaning:

• An explicit numerical limit (e.g., X million tonnes per year) on total national capacity or output.

• Enforced via strict controls like "capacity replacement" rules (new capacity only if equal/old capacity is retired), bans on net new additions, or direct production quotas.

YES examples:

• Official policy directive setting a fixed cap (e.g., "refined copper smelting capacity shall not exceed 15 million tonnes").

• Inclusion of such a cap in the finalized 15th Five-Year Plan (2026-2030) documents.

• Government-mandated production ceiling tied to environmental/energy goals.

NO examples (does not qualify):

• Voluntary smelter agreements (e.g., CSPT's >10% utilization cuts in 2026).

• Tightened project approvals, oversight, or halts on specific expansions (e.g., suspending ~2Mt planned capacity).

• General growth targets (e.g., 1.5% annual non-ferrous output growth) without a hard numerical ceiling.

• Regional/provincial limits without a national cap.

Resolution sources (in order of priority):

1. Official government websites/announcements (NDRC, MIIT, State Council).

2. State media (Xinhua, People's Daily) reporting official policy.

3. Authoritative industry reports confirming the policy (e.g., China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association). If ambiguous, the market creator/resolver will favor the most authoritative source; community discussion on Manifold is encouraged for edge cases.

Estimated Probability (as of late December 2025): 45%

Reasoning for the estimate:

• Strong momentum toward controls: Industry association (CNMIA) has repeatedly recommended an aluminum-style cap since mid-2025; government has halted ~2Mt expansions; smelters agreed to voluntary cuts; NDRC announced tightened oversight on new projects from 2026-2030 (just yesterday, Dec 26).

• But not yet a hard cap: Current measures are restrictions on growth/overcapacity, not an explicit numerical ceiling like aluminum's 45Mt. The 15th FYP (finalized in 2026) could formalize it, but recent announcements focus on "reining in expansion" and feasibility studies rather than a fixed limit.

• Precedent and timing: Aluminum cap took years to become binding; copper pressure is acute (record low TC/RCs), increasing odds of escalation in 2026, but voluntary/indirect measures might suffice short-term.