Resolution Criteria:

This market resolves YES if, by December 31, 2026, the Chinese government (e.g., NDRC, MIIT, State Council, or other central authority) officially announces or implements a hard national ceiling on refined zinc smelting/refining capacity or annual production output.

This must be modeled after the aluminum sector's 45 million tonne annual capacity cap (introduced in 2017), meaning:

• An explicit numerical limit (e.g., X million tonnes per year) on total national capacity or output.

• Enforced via strict controls like "capacity replacement" rules (new capacity only if equal/old capacity is retired), bans on net new additions, or direct production quotas.

YES examples:

• Official policy directive setting a fixed cap (e.g., "refined zinc smelting capacity shall not exceed 7 million tonnes").

• Inclusion of such a cap in the finalized 15th Five-Year Plan (2026-2030) documents.

• Government-mandated production ceiling tied to environmental/energy goals.

NO examples (does not qualify):

• Voluntary smelter agreements (e.g., cuts in utilization or processing fees set by CZSPT).

• Tightened project approvals, oversight, or halts on specific expansions (e.g., suspending planned capacity additions).

• General growth targets (e.g., 1.5% annual non-ferrous output growth) without a hard numerical ceiling.

• Regional/provincial limits without a national cap.

Resolution sources (in order of priority):

1. Official government websites/announcements (NDRC, MIIT, State Council).

2. State media (Xinhua, People's Daily) reporting official policy.

3. Authoritative industry reports confirming the policy (e.g., China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association). If ambiguous, the market creator/resolver will favor the most authoritative source; community discussion on Manifold is encouraged for edge cases.

Estimated Probability (as of late December 2025): 40%

Reasoning for the estimate:

• Momentum from recommendations: The China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association (CNMIA) recommended an aluminum-style capacity cap for zinc (along with copper and lead) in October/November 2025 to address overcapacity, low profitability, and intense competition, with zinc smelting capacity projected to rise by ~430,000 tons in 2025.

• But limited government action so far: Unlike copper (where NDRC announced tightened oversight on new projects just yesterday, Dec 26), no specific recent announcements for zinc; current measures focus on voluntary cuts or general non-ferrous growth targets (~5% annually for 2025-2026).

• Precedent and timing: Zinc faces similar overcapacity issues as copper, increasing odds of inclusion in the 15th FYP formalization in 2026, but voluntary or indirect controls might prevail short-term without escalating to a hard cap.

• Overall: Likely stricter policies ahead, but slightly lower chance than copper of a true "hard cap" by EOY 2026 due to less targeted government focus to date.