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MANIFOLD
Will China's MOFCOM samarium export controls be actively in force on December 31, 2027?
1
Ṁ100Ṁ5
2027
71%
chance

This market resolves YES if China's MOFCOM export license requirement for samarium (Sm), samarium oxide (Sm2O3), and samarium alloys is actively enforced on December 31, 2027 — i.e., exporters must obtain an export license under MOFCOM Decree No. 18 or equivalent order.

YES if: Export licenses are required for samarium as of December 31, 2027 NO if: Controls are suspended or permanently rescinded on December 31, 2027

Resolution sources (priority order):

  1. MOFCOM official gazette (mofcom.gov.cn) — export control announcements

  2. China Ministry of Commerce policy announcements

  3. Reuters / Bloomberg reporting on China rare earth export policy

  4. S&P Global / Fastmarkets commentary on China REE export status

Market context
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