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MANIFOLD
Will China have active export controls on silicon metal (MG-Si) on December 31, 2026?
1
Ṁ100Ṁ10
Dec 31
29%
chance
9

This market resolves YES if China's Ministry of Commerce (MOFCOM) or State Council has active export control measures — including licensing requirements, quotas, or bans — specifically targeting silicon metal (MG-Si, HS 2804.69) on December 31, 2026.

YES if: Active MOFCOM export licensing, quota, or ban on MG-Si in effect on Dec 31, 2026 NO if: MG-Si exports proceed under normal MFN conditions with no additional restrictions

Resolution sources (priority order):

  1. China MOFCOM export control registry (mofcom.gov.cn)

  2. China State Council / NDRC official trade policy announcements

  3. US Department of Commerce / BIS China trade policy updates

  4. Reuters, Bloomberg, FT China trade policy reporting

Market context
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