🏅 Top traders

Hey does anyone want to make a really large bet with me about Wheat for 48 hours or so?

Someone who is paying attention: Why was FUH trading so high during the walkathon only to plummet after... he won the walkathon and it still wasn't enough. Was there a different FUH loss/Marcus win somewhere out there that widened the lead?

@MichaelWheatley The average Manifolder is illiterate and innumerate. Literally they can't read market descriptions, and don't know how to subtract expected value and cost basis from count of shares. So they see "600k YES shares, FUH is going to be rich", and forget that a lot of that is cost basis and already counted as profit. Basic math is beyond them.

In general, you make the mistake of assuming that Manifolders and Manifold devs are smart competent people and must have reasons for the mistakes they do. But actually they are just stupid and there is no higher reason.

@Mira it must be tough for you being a far below average Manifolder then

@Mira I think the avg manifold user knows how to toggle position/profit, so it isn't beyond their intelligence or capability to figure it out. they just don't bother. plus i think a lot of people were interpreting FUH as attempting to manipulate his way to top trader and thus bet on his ability to pull off a maneuver of that scale in the time given as opposed to running the numbers.

@MichaelWheatley people can't count unrealized profit

@Mira that may be true but isn't a sufficient explanation, as prices aren't set by the average manifolder

@chrisjbillington correct. A large problem though is illiquidity and time. If you gave the top manifolders (who in theory are best at this) enough time to price every market, the calibration would start to look very good. But most markets aren't looked at and a lot are forgotten. And also, i do think there was a chance FUH was gonna try some shit

@chrisjbillington I'm pretty sure this was a combination of me being bad at math and thinking FUH had an extra trick up his sleeve since he was betting on himself

@Joshua I was also betting on both Marcus and Mira.

I've been the top YES holder for Marcus as well as Mira for 5 months now.

@Joshua I want to be careful giving @firstuserhere too many compliments. He is doing important work and I don't want him to be too full of himself to think he can stop. But FUH is very smart and capable of plans to get ahead

how's the mira one looking?

@MarcusAbramovitch 💀

The gods have decided to show their superiority to us mere mortals.

@MichaelWheatley you said that acc counts even if it's not on the leaderboard? Does that... apply to other accounts?

@Joshua I think that's a bug that will get corrected even on the profile page.

@MichaelWheatley happening presently

@MayMeta I appreciate your faith in my abilities

Is "dark horse" anyone not listed?

@MarcusAbramovitch Exactly

I thought this would be the rare multi-choice market where you could give the None-Of-The-Above option good branding so it's not an automatic disappointment when you have to resolve "Other."

@MichaelWheatley By the end of 2023 several new plausible candidates might appear, and currently they will have to be traded together under the "dark horse" option, which might prove to be inconvenient.

Would you consider enabling Free Response on your market, if James releases such a feature for Multi-Binary markets sometime during 2023? Disclaimer: I don't have any insider info on such features, and this is pure speculation on my behalf.

@MayMeta James is planning to add free answer, but it's not clear yet how exactly it will work (will it be a separate type or will you be able to add answers to existing multi choice markets), so I think it'll depend on how free response is enabled - the way for it to work is the market has to already have an "other" option (like here), and the mechanism lets the author split new options off of "other".

@MayMeta Jack beat me to it. I don't want to commit to that until I know the mechanism. I would only do that if the mechanism lets me do it in a way that allows Dark Horse holders to preserve the value of their investments.

@jack created a market on that /MayMeta/will-it-be-possible-to-add-new-choi 👍

@MayMeta Wait a minute, i see what this is about....

I know you're anticipating a big payday on Levi-HMYS, but aren't you counting your chickens before they hatch?

@MichaelWheatley extreme resolution of that market could actually put HMYS on the leaderboard too. My bet is just stating "A lot can change in the following 6 months". Post-WvM seems to be more dynamic, with AI letters/statements and all that