Will Ukraine sever the land bridge between Crimea and Russia before 2026?
23
2.2k
2026
14%
chance

Resolves as YES if there is a broad consensus that Ukraine's military has severed the land bridge between Crimea and Russia. This state of affairs must exist continuously for a minimum of 24 hours at any moment before the conclusion of 2025.

If this hasn't transpired by January 1, 2026 (local time), the answer will be NO. Should there be any uncertainty regarding the land bridge's full control by Ukraine, a 7-day extension will be provided to determine the precise situation during the final 24 hours of 2025.

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