Will Ukraine sever the land bridge between Crimea and Russia before 2026?
Will Ukraine sever the land bridge between Crimea and Russia before 2026?
67
1kṀ9471
2026
12%
chance

Resolves as YES if there is a broad consensus that Ukraine's military has severed the land bridge between Crimea and Russia. This state of affairs must exist continuously for a minimum of 24 hours at any moment before the conclusion of 2025. There must be a continuous line of Ukrainian control to the Azov Sea coast, preventing the traversal of Russian infantry and vehicles over a period of at least 24 hours.

If this hasn't transpired by January 1, 2026 (local time), the answer will be NO. Should there be any uncertainty regarding the land bridge's control by Ukraine, a 7-day extension will be provided to determine the precise situation during the final days of 2025. If after 7 days the situation is still unclear, this question resolves as N/A.

Ukraine-Russia war
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Russia
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7mo

This market is not about bridge at all!
It's about Azov sea coast. Crazy wording!

7mo

@IvanK It's a fairly common term in English: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Land_bridge

bought Ṁ700 YES

Here is 45% for 2024: https://manifold.markets/RemNi/will-the-kerch-strait-rail-bridge-r
So given +1 year, the probability should be much higher.
And also, current situation in Kursk region and Donetsk region makes it logical for Ukraine to push on Crimea bridge. Therefore, I bought a lot of YES shares.

Will the Kerch Strait Rail Bridge (rail bridge from Russia to Crimea) be rendered inoperable in 2024?
45% chance. Resolves to YES if at any time in 2024 the Kerch Strait Rail Bridge ends up in a state in which it cannot be used for more than 48 hours.
sold Ṁ13 YES7mo

@IvanK Not the same condition.

7mo

@UlyssesB yeah, the word "bridge" is very confusing in thi context.
I fell for a trap - it's not about bridge at all!

9mo

I guess you meant Azov sea, not Black sea?

9mo

Ah yes thanks

9mo

What do you mean under "land bridge's full control by Ukraine" in the sentence "...uncertainty regarding the land bridge's full control by Ukraine, a 7-day extension will be provided to determine the precise situation..." ?

Does this mean that they should exert control over the bridge in order to resolve it to yes?

Severing land connection and controlling it by military means are totally diff things

9mo

updated description

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