Things that would definitely count:
It becomes significantly harder to obtain an abortion, birth control, a divorce, or gender affirming care
It becomes significantly harder to get a same-sex marriage legally recognized
It becomes significantly harder for trans children to transition -- either because some policy directly prevents it or because it gives additional veto/visibility to parents.
An overall trend of -- it is now harder to get healthcare because the ACA got repealed or something and it's therefore specifically harder to get birth control -- would not count. I'm looking for socially conservative policy, not knock-on effects of economically conservative policy.
A blue state becoming red doesn't count, what I'm looking for is federal policy affecting people in a state despite the best efforts of that state's government.
At the end of the day, this is likely to be a judgement call on my count, so I will not bet.
1,000People are also trading
This is not exactly separable. For example, at any given time, thousands of Americans are waiting for reunification visas for their foreign-born spouses. (This is often a years-long process.) The Republicans intend to change policy to deny those visas to same-sex partners, and this will affect US citizens in every state.
More specific question: https://manifold.markets/dawnlightmelody/at-end-of-year-2026-how-difficult-w