Things that would definitely count:

It becomes significantly harder to obtain an abortion, birth control, a divorce, or gender affirming care

It becomes significantly harder to get a same-sex marriage legally recognized

It becomes significantly harder for trans children to transition -- either because some policy directly prevents it or because it gives additional veto/visibility to parents.

An overall trend of -- it is now harder to get healthcare because the ACA got repealed or something and it's therefore specifically harder to get birth control -- would not count. I'm looking for socially conservative policy, not knock-on effects of economically conservative policy.

A blue state becoming red doesn't count, what I'm looking for is federal policy affecting people in a state despite the best efforts of that state's government.

At the end of the day, this is likely to be a judgement call on my count, so I will not bet.