Things that would definitely count:
It becomes significantly harder to obtain an abortion, birth control, a divorce, or gender affirming care
It becomes significantly harder to get a same-sex marriage legally recognized
It becomes significantly harder for trans children to transition -- either because some policy directly prevents it or because it gives additional veto/visibility to parents.
An overall trend of -- it is now harder to get healthcare because the ACA got repealed or something and it's therefore specifically harder to get birth control -- would not count. I'm looking for socially conservative policy, not knock-on effects of economically conservative policy.
A blue state becoming red doesn't count, what I'm looking for is federal policy affecting people in a state despite the best efforts of that state's government.
At the end of the day, this is likely to be a judgement call on my count, so I will not bet.
1,000I'm considering nativism/anti-immigrant policy to be its own thing apart from social conservatism
This is not exactly separable. For example, at any given time, thousands of Americans are waiting for reunification visas for their foreign-born spouses. (This is often a years-long process.) The Republicans intend to change policy to deny those visas to same-sex partners, and this will affect US citizens in every state.
I'm guessing it doesn't count if the lives of a few people in a blue state are affected due to cross-state interaction?
More specific question: https://manifold.markets/dawnlightmelody/at-end-of-year-2026-how-difficult-w