Will there be a major change to the US political system by the end of 2035?
Basic
19
998
2036
72%
chance

This market will resolve based on my subjective opinion. I won’t bet on this market.

For an change to be major enough to resolve this market to YES, it would have to be similar to:

  • A new amendment being added to the Constitution

  • A third party gaining prominence comparable to the Democratic and Republican parties

  • The National Popular Vote Interstate Compact coming into effect

  • The number of Supreme Court justices being increased

  • A state being added to or seceding from the US

  • The House of Representatives beginning to use proportional representation

  • The number of representatives in the House of Representatives being increased

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Would ending the filibuster in the Senate count?

@squirrelfish Yes, if it was for all bills. Reducing the number of Senators required to pass a bill to just a majority would be a big change. I would not have counted ending the filibuster for just judicial nominations.

bought Ṁ40 YES

@Arky Thanks, that's definitely going to happen then in my opinion.

@squirrelfish Looks like it’s at about 50% in this market although that’s a bit shorter of a time frame