Will there be a major change to the US political system by the end of 2035?
20
1kṀ10272036
72%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
This market will resolve based on my subjective opinion. I won’t bet on this market.
For an change to be major enough to resolve this market to YES, it would have to be similar to:
A new amendment being added to the Constitution
A third party gaining prominence comparable to the Democratic and Republican parties
The National Popular Vote Interstate Compact coming into effect
The number of Supreme Court justices being increased
A state being added to or seceding from the US
The House of Representatives beginning to use proportional representation
The number of representatives in the House of Representatives being increased
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000 to start trading!
People are also trading
Related questions
Will the US be a democracy in 2035?
89% chance
Will there a major change in the election of MPs before 2030? What is the result of the 2024 election?
Will the democracy score for the United States significantly decrease by the end of 2025?
86% chance
Will there be a US presidential election in 2032?
88% chance
At any point before February 1, 2045, will there be a major third party in US politics? [read desc]
32% chance
Will the US be a democracy in 2050?
82% chance
Will there be an unscheduled change in the US presidential election date through 2036?
18% chance
Will the US undergo a major political crisis before 2027
55% chance
Will America remain a two-party system until 2032?
90% chance
Will the United States experience a constitutional crisis before 2030?
83% chance