This market will resolve based on my subjective opinion. I won’t bet on this market.
For an change to be major enough to resolve this market to YES, it would have to be similar to:
A new amendment being added to the Constitution
A third party gaining prominence comparable to the Democratic and Republican parties
The National Popular Vote Interstate Compact coming into effect
The number of Supreme Court justices being increased
A state being added to or seceding from the US
The House of Representatives beginning to use proportional representation
The number of representatives in the House of Representatives being increased
1,000@squirrelfish Yes, if it was for all bills. Reducing the number of Senators required to pass a bill to just a majority would be a big change. I would not have counted ending the filibuster for just judicial nominations.
@squirrelfish Looks like it’s at about 50% in this market although that’s a bit shorter of a time frame