This market is about whether by the end of 2025, the movement for transgender rights has basically succeeded from an all-things-considered view.

Success criteria for the transgender rights movement (all of the following must be true):

• Most major Republican Party congresspeople no longer openly express anti-trans sentiment (and haven't for a period of at least six months before resolution day)

• No major Democratic Party congresspeople openly express anti-trans sentiment (and haven't for a period of at least six months before resolution day)

• HRT is accessible in all 50 states via informed consent for at least one hour on resolution day

• No more than three congresspersons openly support criminal punishments against transgender individuals or HCPs (healthcare providers) legally working with transgender individuals for a period of at least 6 months

• No blanket bans against HCPs (healthcare providers) administering HRT to transgender individuals under the age of 18 for a period of at least 6 months at the state (in all 50 states) or federal level

WARNING

⚠️ This market is subject to elevated resolution risk!!! ⚠️

I may not share your views on what counts as "blanket," "support," "openly," or "anti-trans" sentiment. I will do my best to resolve this market fairly, but I reserve the right to resolve this market to my own judgement. I MAY RESOLVE THIS MARKET IN A WAY YOU PERCEIVE TO BE INCORRECT. You're taking a risk. You have been warned.

Feel free to ask clarifying questions.