Will I consider the transgender rights movement in America to have “basically won” by the end of 2025?
18
60
350
2025
7%
chance

This market is about whether by the end of 2025, the movement for transgender rights has basically succeeded from an all-things-considered view.

Success criteria for the transgender rights movement (all of the following must be true):

  • Most major Republican Party congresspeople no longer openly express anti-trans sentiment (and haven't for a period of at least six months before resolution day)

  • No major Democratic Party congresspeople openly express anti-trans sentiment (and haven't for a period of at least six months before resolution day)

  • HRT is accessible in all 50 states via informed consent for at least one hour on resolution day

  • No more than three congresspersons openly support criminal punishments against transgender individuals or HCPs (healthcare providers) legally working with transgender individuals for a period of at least 6 months

  • No blanket bans against HCPs (healthcare providers) administering HRT to transgender individuals under the age of 18 for a period of at least 6 months at the state (in all 50 states) or federal level

WARNING

⚠️ This market is subject to elevated resolution risk!!! ⚠️

I may not share your views on what counts as "blanket," "support," "openly," or "anti-trans" sentiment. I will do my best to resolve this market fairly, but I reserve the right to resolve this market to my own judgement. I MAY RESOLVE THIS MARKET IN A WAY YOU PERCEIVE TO BE INCORRECT. You're taking a risk. You have been warned.

Feel free to ask clarifying questions.

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I feel like that's a reasonable baseline for "basically won." I might add some things like "no bathroom bills," "no sports bans," "a ban on employment and housing discrimination" and so on, but at this point I'll be happy once they just stop trying to kill us.

Unfortunately, I don't think this will happen this decade. A girl can dream, but...