Change in US support for same-sex marriage, 2025-2026
22
Ṁ1kṀ2.8kresolved Jun 8
100%7%
-3% or less (<=65%)
11%
+3% or more (>=71%)
8%
2% increase (70%)
13%
1% increase (69%)
20%
No change (68%)
33%
1% decrease (67%)
9%
2% decrease (66%)
Each year, Gallup runs a survey asking Americans "Do you think marriages between same-sex couples should or should not be recognized by the law as valid, with the same rights as traditional marriages?" The most recent such poll, run in May 2025, showed support at 68%. How much will the results change between then and the May 2026 poll?
Since 2016, the results have been, in chronological order: 61%, 64%, 67%, 63%, 67%, 70%, 71%, 71%, 69%, 68%.
I will not bet on this market.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000 to start trading!
🏅 Top traders
| # | Trader | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ696 | |
| 2 | Ṁ565 | |
| 3 | Ṁ135 | |
| 4 | Ṁ28 | |
| 5 | Ṁ5 |
People are also trading
Related questions
Change in US support for same-sex marriage, 2026-2027
Will gay marriage be legal in every US state in 2026
95% chance
Will same-sex marriage be federally guaranteed in the US for all of now through 2026?
97% chance
Will a US state cease to recognize same-sex marriages by 2029?
11% chance
Will same-sex marriage be made illegal in the U.S. by end of 2040?
6% chance
Will every state in the US perform and recognize gay marriage at the end of 2028?
88% chance
Which jurisdictions will recognise same-sex marriages as of 1 January 2027?
SCOTUS takes up same sex marriage case in
2025-2026 or 2026-2027 docket?
2% chance
Will the US Supreme Court overturn gay marriage [Obergefell v. Hodges] before 2030?
6% chance
Will any country that has once institutionalized same-sex marriage ban it again before 2030?
38% chance