https://www.irs.gov/newsroom/irs-advances-innovative-direct-file-project-for-2024-tax-season-free-irs-run-pilot-option-projected-to-be-available-for-eligible-taxpayers-in-13-states
This is admittedly subjective, so I won't bet in this market.
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Sounds like it's going well:
Against all odds, the government has created an actually good piece of technology.
@chrisjbillington
https://www.pilotonline.com/2024/04/12/column-irs-direct-simplifies-tax-filing-saves-money/
Early reviews of Direct File show strong support, with users reporting it as “the fastest I’ve ever done my taxes” and “honestly the easiest tax experience I’ve ever had.” One reporter said that “the government has created an actually good piece of software.”
And the IRS says:
https://www.irs.gov/about-irs/strategic-plan/direct-file-pilot-news
April 12: It's been four weeks since IRS Direct File launched and we've seen increasing interest from taxpayers in this new free service. Each week, we saw steady growth in people using Direct File, including several days this week with more than 5,000 returns accepted each day.
Taxpayers using Direct File have claimed more than $50 million in refunds. California, Texas, Florida, and Washington have the highest number of accepted returns to date.
Since Direct File launched, taxpayers have used Direct File's live customer support more than 25,000 times, where average wait times for assistance were consistently between 10 and 20 seconds and between a minute and two minutes during peak use. Use of live customer support picked up this week, with taxpayers using support nearly 8,700 times, with eligibility being the main topic of conversation.
On the other hand, apparently the number of filings falls short of a forecast:
https://www.wsj.com/articles/irs-direct-file-taxes-elizabeth-warren-joe-biden-aa7c214d
So far it’s a bust. The IRS predicted “several hundred thousand” would use direct file. But as Monday’s tax deadline approaches, sources tell us the IRS has accepted fewer than 60,000 returns via Direct File—about 0.3% of the eligible pool. Until this week the agency had failed to enable users to import crucial details to validate their returns before filing.
But the authors seems to have a massive chip on their shoulder about the whole thing:
Beware a tax collector bearing gifts—in the latest case an offer to calculate and file your taxes for you. That’s the story of Direct File, which President Biden is touting as a new “free, secure, simple way to file your taxes.” Sure.
This is another brainstorm from Sen. Elizabeth Warren, who stuck $15 million into the Inflation Reduction Act to study if the IRS could prepare tax returns for taxpayers.
So I'd want to look at the context of that forecast that "several hundred thousand" would use it, as well as see final numbers on how many did before concluding that's actually indicative of it not going well.