Hard take-off defined as rapid self-improvement, in a matter of hours or days, so that it gradually and quickly becomes superhuman at every cognitive task. I would consider it soft takeoff if it takes more than 2 months.
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@SophusCorry I think there is no bottleneck at all, because current methods are extremely inefficient. Once we get the first AGI that manages to figure out a better method to rewrite itself and its new iterations, we get hard takeoff.
@SophusCorry Hours or days, with a upper limit of 2 months. After that I consider it soft takeoff.
We're talking about AGI already, which by definition would be at least as capable as any other human, but it has the advantage of not needing rest, being parallelizable as you can run multiple instances of it, and it presumably it wouldn't be exactly at the threshold of "human level" for every task, but at least at it, and for some tasks it would be better.
Given all that, I think there is a good chance that it would quickly be able to improve on its own code iteratively or even rewrite it completely as soon as it is run for the first time.
@MarioCannistra after 2 days I don't consider it a hard takeoff anymore, but I see now you put that limit in the description