Will Superalignment succeed? (self assessment)

428

4.8kṀ260k

resolved May 20

Resolved

NO

1H

6H

1D

1W

1M

ALL

Superalignment is a new team at OpenAI attempting to solve the alignment problem within 4 years.

If the team believes they have succeeded in this goal of "solv[ing] the core technical challenges of superintelligence alignment in four years" by their own estimation by July 5th, 2027, this market will resolve YES. If the team dissolves, reorganizes, or pursues a separate research direction unlikely to lead to a solution to the alignment problem, this resolves NO.

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