MANIFOLD
By the end of 2027, will over 70% of people use software or AI software to do their tax?
14
Ṁ1kṀ265
2028
59%
chance

Towards the end of 2027, I will do a poll on Manifold asking "Do you mainly use software or AI software to do your tax return?"
Using Turbo tax is an example of mainly using software to do tax return
If a personal accountant is involved, it doesn't count as "mainly using software" to file tax return

As AI improves, I anticipate that Turbo tax and other tax return software would adapt AI for tax return as well.


Resolves Yes if over 70% of the respondent answered Yes.

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Maybe put "people on manifold" in the title

I'm worried this market is flawed, as it incentivizes voting dishonestly in the poll to secure one's own resolution outcome.

@GazDownright Most markets that resolves base on poll results on Manifold suffers from the same problem. Alternatively I could resolve base on the statistics on some website, but that's another market

Oh man, I wish

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