This market will settle to YES if the June 2024 readings of Core PCE Inflation and Unemployment (defined by the BLS) read as the following:
PCE Inflation excluding Food and Energy is below 2% YoY
Unemployment is below 5.5% (2% above the recent low of 3.5%)
This market will also resolve to NO if at any time between Nov 2022 and June 2024 the Unemployment level reads above 5.5%.
Creator policy: I won't bet.
Related questions
@MP core PCE below 2% is what gets me. 2% is the target, so if they are on target, there's only a roughly 50% chance it'll be below 2%.
@MP %2 yoy is the sticking point. It's entirely possible the Fed will consider it undesirable to move below the %2 target.
Link to BEA page with PCE excluding food and energy is here https://www.bea.gov/data/personal-consumption-expenditures-price-index-excluding-food-and-energy, that's actually already at 4.4% for December 2022 so it actually won't need to drop too much over a year and change for this to resolve true.