
Will the Doomsday Clock advance toward midnight partly due to AI by January 2024
66
Ṁ1kṀ5.2kresolved Jan 24
Resolved
NO1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Resolves "Yes" if the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists' Doomsday Clock at https://thebulletin.org/doomsday-clock/ is set closer to midnight by the end of January 2024 than the end of January 2023 (90s) AND the report cites AI risks.
This includes inclusion of AI in the disruptive technologies detailed report. See https://thebulletin.org/doomsday-clock/current-time/disruptive-technologies/ for the current version of that. But it could also be a new AI-focused section.

This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Market context
Get
1,000 to start trading!
🏅 Top traders
| # | Trader | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ310 | |
| 2 | Ṁ118 | |
| 3 | Ṁ58 | |
| 4 | Ṁ57 | |
| 5 | Ṁ55 |
Sort by:
Big AI risk energy but the clock held steady at 90s
https://thebulletin.org/doomsday-clock/current-time/disruptive-technologies/
People are also trading
Related questions
Will the Doomsday Clock reach 80 seconds to midnight in 2027?
25% chance
Will the Doomsday Clock reach 50 seconds to midnight by 2027?
12% chance
The next time the AI Safety Clock moves, will it get further away from midnight?
4% chance
Will the Doomsday Clock reach 40 seconds to midnight by 2028?
24% chance
Will the Doomsday Clock reach 30 seconds to midnight by 2029?
32% chance
Will the Doomsday Clock reach 10 minutes or more to midnight before 2040?
33% chance
Will the Doomsday Clock reach 20 seconds to midnight by 2030?
51% chance
Will the Doomsday Clock reach 5 minutes or more to midnight before 2040?
36% chance
Will the Doomsday Clock reach 20 minutes or more to midnight before 2050?
25% chance
In the next 5 years, will the Doomsday Clock reach 4 or more minutes to midnight?
11% chance