What are the probabilities of these AI outcomes (X-risk, dystopias, utopias, in-between outcomes, status quo outcomes)?

Question

Buy/sell these outcomes to the probabilities you consider appropriate.

Mar 25, 6:05am: What are the probabilities of these AI outcomes? → What are the probabilities of these AI outcomes (X-risk, dystopias, utopias, in-between outcomes, status quo outcomes)?

Manifold Markets · Answer

Per Manifold Markets prediction market, A. Death by paperclips, eternal torment of all humans by AI, or similar unalignment catastrophe., followed by F. AI wipes out most jobs as in D. People not forced into mind-uploads or experience machines. General perception that AI has made life more meaningful/fulfilling&improved the human experience on dimensions other than hedonium maximization. and I. AI soon hits fundamental scaling laws and we go into another AI winter. are most likely. See the market for live updates (63 traders, as of Jul 5, 2026).