Will the Doomsday Clock advance toward midnight in/by January 2025?
Basic
15
𝕊186Jan 22
86%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Resolves "Yes" if the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists' Doomsday Clock at https://thebulletin.org/doomsday-clock/ is set closer to midnight by the end of January 2025 than the end of January 2024.
Criteria clarification:
-If the clock is at the exact same time as 2024 (90 seconds) this resolves NO.
-If thebulletin doesn't release a statement on the clock's new time by the end of February (PST) then this market will resolve to 50%.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000
and3.00
Sort by:
Related questions
Related questions
Will the Doomsday Clock reach 15 minutes or more to midnight before 2050?
41% chance
Will the Doomsday Clock reach 30 seconds to midnight by 2029?
47% chance
Will the Doomsday Clock reach 50 seconds to midnight by 2027?
30% chance
Will the Doomsday Clock be 60s (or less) to midnight by end of January 2026
15% chance
What will be the reason cited the next time the doomsday clock moves closer to midnight?
Will the Doomsday Clock reach 20 seconds to midnight by 2030?
52% chance
Will the Doomsday Clock reach 5 minutes or more to midnight before 2040?
36% chance
Will the Doomsday Clock reach 40 seconds to midnight by 2028?
27% chance
Will the Doomsday Clock reach 20 minutes or more to midnight before 2050?
24% chance
What will be the reason cited the next time the doomsday clock moves closer to midnight?