Will Representative George Santos still be a member of the House of Representatives at the start of December 4, 2023?
Will Representative George Santos still be a member of the House of Representatives at the start of December 4, 2023?
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Reports say he could be expelled as soon as this week. Will he resign? Will he be given the boot? Or will he still be there a week from now?
Edited for clarity on resolution time
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And he is OUTTA THERE
Looks like the vote is going to be on Thursday 👀 https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/live/2023/nov/29/george-santos-expulsion-vote-biden-boebert-politics-latest-updates
I just realized that "on december 4th" is actually way more ambiguous than I intended, so I am interpreting it as "at the start of december 4th." Sorry about that! If anyone has any issues with that, let me know, i'm not sure how others interpreted it.
@MickBransfield “I know I’m going to get expelled when this expulsion resolution goes to the floor,” Santos said during a conversation on X Spaces on Friday night. “I’ve done the math over and over, and it doesn’t look really good.”
Well, seems like the probability of this market is almost entirely a matter of when the house will hold a floor vote.
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What is Manifold?
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Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
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Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
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