Reportedly, the IRGC says "The war has begun"

https://x.com/InsiderGeo/status/1936585714092687526

@spider NYT front page just says "US carries out strikes in Iran", though this live update does say they ae joining the war. Jerusalem Post says "Trump confirms US airstrikes on Iran nuclear sites". Same for ynet and WSJ. They are just talking about US strikes, not joining the war. I think NO is correct still.

I think it's also probably best practice for you to sell all your YES/NO shares and exit the market right now.

@nathanwei yep, agreed. one headline is definitely not enough for "media consensus", just pointing this headline as a potentially relevant piece of info for traders.

The US just bombed Iran. @spider does that create a YES resolution?

@nathanwei is correct, YES would be way preemptive at this stage

Uhhh this might get tricky to resolve. If things get properly ambiguous I’ll either do a stays above / below X percent for Y time, or a sufficiently large poll, or something else. If you bet with the spirit of the question, you can have my word that you won’t get caught on some technicality.

@spider This definitely does not count as YES. We already bombed Soleimani and bombed tons of countries. I don't see a war. I just bought a lot of NO since I think the regime will fall too quickly before there's a war.

@nathanwei I really struggle to see how Iran can do more than a Soleimani-style retaliation at this stage. Seems hard to be YES.

I think if the US bombs Iran’s nuclear sites, war with Iran seems very hard to avoid.

base case here is 2 nations with mutually exclusive ultimatums threatening violence. Trump might be bluffing, but 30% chance seems decent for US strikes.

20% of war with Iran? @Bayesian why do you think the chance is that high? An ACTIVE state of war. This is not just "the US bombs the nuclear sites".

@nathanwei idk much about geopolitics but i thought if a country gets bombed it is probably at war with the us? uh

@Bayesian Wrong. For instance the US bombed Pakistan to kill bin Laden. But there was no war. The US killed Soleimani in Iraq. No war with Iraq, the Iraq War was already over by then.

Read the resolution criteria. Even bombing Iran is quite unlikely to trigger a YES.

@nathanwei okay but in both of those cases the person being bombed was not even a citizen of the given country, let alone, say, their military or a member of their government.

@bens Still I don’t see a US strike on the nuclear sites triggering an actual war

@bens Killing Soleimani didn’t start a war with Iran

Does the USA or Iran have to formally declare war for this to resolve YES? Or is there some level of intensity (casualties, troops crossing borders, missiles fired) that must be exceeded for this to resolve?

@Jwags the same resolution as Nick Allen’s 2024 market:

“Public acknowledgement by both sides, major US government figures referring to a state of active war between the US and Iran, multiple media outlets referring to a US-Iran war as something that is actively occuring in a sustained manner, or other similar events will resolve this question "yes". Will not resolve "yes" for drum-beating propaganda, only for active public prosecution of a full-spectrum conflict.”

@spider Still very vague - would you consider Israel to be at war with Iran right now under these criteria?

This is either going to be the single dumbest prediction I have on the table, or I'll be hailed as a genius (solely in my own head)

@rohanvisme

https://manifold.markets/MolbyDick/will-tesla-stock-reach-275-by-88-of-e836ca33649e

WAAY overpriced. See here: https://manifold.markets/MaxHarms/next-us-president-war-with-iran-chi

30% for Russia China AND Iran in not just 2025 but also 2026 2027 and 2028.

@rohanvisme lol

@gigab0nus it's just pretty clear to me where this is headed.

Probably going to buy more YES haha