I think if the US bombs Iran’s nuclear sites, war with Iran seems very hard to avoid.

base case here is 2 nations with mutually exclusive ultimatums threatening violence. Trump might be bluffing, but 30% chance seems decent for US strikes.

20% of war with Iran? @Bayesian why do you think the chance is that high? An ACTIVE state of war. This is not just "the US bombs the nuclear sites".

@nathanwei idk much about geopolitics but i thought if a country gets bombed it is probably at war with the us? uh

@Bayesian Wrong. For instance the US bombed Pakistan to kill bin Laden. But there was no war. The US killed Soleimani in Iraq. No war with Iraq, the Iraq War was already over by then.

Read the resolution criteria. Even bombing Iran is quite unlikely to trigger a YES.

@nathanwei okay but in both of those cases the person being bombed was not even a citizen of the given country, let alone, say, their military or a member of their government.

@bens Still I don’t see a US strike on the nuclear sites triggering an actual war

Does the USA or Iran have to formally declare war for this to resolve YES? Or is there some level of intensity (casualties, troops crossing borders, missiles fired) that must be exceeded for this to resolve?

@Jwags the same resolution as Nick Allen’s 2024 market:

“Public acknowledgement by both sides, major US government figures referring to a state of active war between the US and Iran, multiple media outlets referring to a US-Iran war as something that is actively occuring in a sustained manner, or other similar events will resolve this question "yes". Will not resolve "yes" for drum-beating propaganda, only for active public prosecution of a full-spectrum conflict.”

This is either going to be the single dumbest prediction I have on the table, or I'll be hailed as a genius (solely in my own head)

@rohanvisme

https://manifold.markets/MolbyDick/will-tesla-stock-reach-275-by-88-of-e836ca33649e

WAAY overpriced. See here: https://manifold.markets/MaxHarms/next-us-president-war-with-iran-chi

30% for Russia China AND Iran in not just 2025 but also 2026 2027 and 2028.

@rohanvisme lol

@gigab0nus it's just pretty clear to me where this is headed.

Probably going to buy more YES haha

Arb: the 2024 market should be no higher / this should be no lower

https://manifold.markets/NickAllen/will-the-us-be-at-war-with-iran-by

@spider can you add some resolution criteria please