Update 2025-05-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Resolution Criteria:
Public acknowledgement by both sides
Major US government figures declaring a state of active war between the US and Iran
Multiple media outlets reporting on the US-Iran war as actively and sustainably occurring
Other similar events indicating active public prosecution of a full-spectrum conflict
Note: Drum-beating propaganda or symbolic actions will not resolve the question to "yes".
1,00020% of war with Iran? @Bayesian why do you think the chance is that high? An ACTIVE state of war. This is not just "the US bombs the nuclear sites".
@nathanwei idk much about geopolitics but i thought if a country gets bombed it is probably at war with the us? uh
@Bayesian Wrong. For instance the US bombed Pakistan to kill bin Laden. But there was no war. The US killed Soleimani in Iraq. No war with Iraq, the Iraq War was already over by then.
Read the resolution criteria. Even bombing Iran is quite unlikely to trigger a YES.
@nathanwei okay but in both of those cases the person being bombed was not even a citizen of the given country, let alone, say, their military or a member of their government.
@Jwags the same resolution as Nick Allen’s 2024 market:
“Public acknowledgement by both sides, major US government figures referring to a state of active war between the US and Iran, multiple media outlets referring to a US-Iran war as something that is actively occuring in a sustained manner, or other similar events will resolve this question "yes". Will not resolve "yes" for drum-beating propaganda, only for active public prosecution of a full-spectrum conflict.”
WAAY overpriced. See here: https://manifold.markets/MaxHarms/next-us-president-war-with-iran-chi
30% for Russia China AND Iran in not just 2025 but also 2026 2027 and 2028.
Arb: the 2024 market should be no higher / this should be no lower
https://manifold.markets/NickAllen/will-the-us-be-at-war-with-iran-by