Resolution criteria:
This market will resolve to the candidate who secures the Democratic nomination for the New York City mayoral election in 2025. The resolution will be based on official announcements from the Democratic Party or the New York City Board of Elections. If no candidate receives the nomination, the market will resolve as N/A.
Background:
The 2025 New York City mayoral race has attracted several prominent Democratic candidates:
Andrew Cuomo: Former Governor of New York, Cuomo announced his candidacy in March 2025, emphasizing the city's need for effective leadership during a time of crisis. (abc7ny.com)
Zohran Mamdani: A member of the New York State Assembly representing the 36th district in Queens, Mamdani is known for his progressive policies, including support for rent freezes and free public transportation. (en.wikipedia.org)
Brad Lander: Serving as New York City Comptroller since 2022, Lander has a background in urban planning and community organizing. He announced his mayoral candidacy in July 2024, focusing on progressive reforms. (en.wikipedia.org)
Zellnor Myrie: A New York State Senator representing parts of Brooklyn, Myrie declared his candidacy in December 2024. He has been active in housing rights and electoral reform. (en.wikipedia.org)
Adrienne Adams: The current Speaker of the New York City Council, Adams entered the mayoral race in March 2025, backed by endorsements from key officials and labor unions. (en.wikipedia.org)
Scott Stringer: Former New York City Comptroller, Stringer launched his campaign in January 2025, aiming for a political comeback after his 2021 mayoral bid. (en.wikipedia.org)
As of early 2025, polls indicate that Cuomo holds a significant lead among Democratic voters, with Stringer and Lander trailing behind. (amny.com)
Considerations:
The Democratic primary is expected to be highly competitive, with candidates representing a range of political ideologies from moderate to progressive. Voter sentiments on issues such as public safety, housing affordability, and economic recovery will likely influence the outcome. Additionally, the use of ranked-choice voting in the primary may impact the dynamics of the race.
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People are also trading
"The resolution will be based on official announcements from the Democratic Party or the New York City Board of Elections"
I do not see any such announcement. In addition, no candidate has obtained 50% of the vote, so we need to wait for the RCV calculations
@nikki I think it would have been well within @HillaryClinton 's rights to wait for that or not, but it's strange that one mod can decide to unresolve this unilaterally when two other mods liked HC's post saying they didn't plan to hold the mana hostage.
@MaybeNotDepends Henry Rogers posted right above you that The Democrats did in fact make a post anyway.
@HenryRodgers Not the Democratic Party of NY. And they are wrong. Among other things, he could be killed (there is a lot of online hate towards him).
It's super easy to wait 6-10 days for this to resolve. Won't hurt anyone.
The market creator also resolved another market on this too early - assigning Mamdani as the winner of the first round when there was enough vote outstanding to overturn it. The rules there didn't let the market creator do it. They were supposed to use the RESULTS, not their personal projection of them.
@MaybeNotDepends in the very very unlikely scenario this needs to be reversed, it will.
I like paying people out fast.
I'm a big loser in this market, so no incentive to do this wrongly.
@MaybeNotDepends Also it says "Democratic Party OR the New York Board of Elections." It doesn't have to be the Democratic Party "of New York."
@Panfilo Yeah, but the Democrat national party has no jurisdiction over NY Democratic primaries. They aren't involved in anyway that I know of. Don't count the votes, decide who can be a candidate or anything. They are just putting out PR.
@HillaryClinton Remind me to avoid your markets in the future.
If you want to pay out fast, change your rules.
I have a secret. Before I created https://elections.cosmicolabs.com/, the first analysis was created entirely by AI (Claude 4 Opus to be specific). It was actually a LOT closer than me in its analysis before I interfered with my puny human brain. Honestly can’t believe how eerily accurate it was.
Check out its summary:
“Based on comprehensive analysis of early voting data (385K votes with Mamdani +10), extreme heat conditions (98-100°F suppressing elderly turnout), and the latest Emerson poll showing Mamdani ahead 52-48% in RCV simulation for the first time, I predict with 95% confidence that Zohran Mamdani defeats Andrew Cuomo in tomorrow's NYC Democratic mayoral primary. The math is straightforward: Mamdani has already banked a 38,500 vote advantage from early voting dominated by young voters, while tomorrow's extreme heat will devastate turnout among Cuomo's older base (600 of 1,213 polling sites lack AC). Combined with progressive ranked-choice voting transfers and unstoppable momentum (Mamdani surged from 1% to 32% in five months), Cuomo simply cannot overcome the structural disadvantages. Final prediction: Mamdani 53%, Cuomo 47% after RCV tabulation.”
