They’re dying, Russians and Ukrainians. I want them to stop dying. And I’ll have that done — I’ll have that done in 24 hours. - Donald J. Trump
He didn't have that done in 24 hours, nor 24 days. Will he have that done in 24 weeks?
Resolution Criteria:
End of War: Defined as a mutually agreed ceasefire or peace agreement signed by Ukraine and Russia.
Timeline: The agreement must be signed within 24 weeks of Trump's inauguration.
Verification: Confirmation that Donald Trump was instrumental in brokering the agreement from recognized news sources or statements from official government sources in Ukraine, Russia, and the U.S.
Update 2025-03-07 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Temporary Ceasefire Leading to War’s End
A temporary ceasefire established within 24 weeks that eventually leads to the end of the war will qualify for a resolution, even if the formal ceasefire or peace agreement is signed after 24 weeks.
The war must actually end as a result of this process.
This update clarifies that the timing for a temporary ceasefire (within 24 weeks) is acceptable if it sets in motion the end of the war.
Update 2025-03-07 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Important Note:
If a temporary ceasefire is broken, the resolution will be NO, unless another ceasefire is agreed within 24 weeks of Trump's inauguration.
This condition applies even if the temporary ceasefire initially led to progress toward ending the war.
Update 2025-03-21 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Broad Consensus Requirement
The war’s end will be determined by a broad consensus among diplomatic and media circles.
Formal Treaty Expectation
A formal treaty for lasting peace is expected as part of the resolution evidence.
Verification Enhancements
Look for clear diplomatic statements, sustained military de-escalation, and media framing that supports a widely accepted resolution.
This clarification emphasizes that the resolution must reflect a broadly accepted outcome rather than relying solely on technical or litigious measures.
Update 2025-06-03 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): For the Timeline criterion ('within 24 weeks of Trump's inauguration'), the relevant event (e.g., signing of agreement or establishment of a qualifying temporary ceasefire) must occur before the market close time. The market is set to close on 2025-07-07T21:59:00.000Z.
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