Who is Dwarkesh's upcoming "biggest guest yet"?
➕
Plus
1.1k
Ṁ1.9m
2025
23%
Other
17%
Elon Musk
6%
Jeff Bezos
6%
Mr. Beast
5%
Gwern Branwen
5%
Barack Obama
5%
Bill Gates
4%
Donald Trump
4%
Sam Altman
3%
roon
2%
Sarah Paine
2%
Bill Clinton
1.9%
Jensen Huang
1.8%
No one, the tweet was a joke or intended to attract advertisers without referring to someone specific
1.5%
Tim Cook
1%
Geoffrey Hinton

https://x.com/dwarkesh_sp/status/1826340260735058400

This market is specifically on whom the above tweet is referring to, regardless of whether the interview occurs.

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I'm kind of thinking it was Gwern lol

bought Ṁ100 YES

https://x.com/ben_j_todd/status/1863066452921876918
Dwarkesh spotted in China. Could it be Xi?

bought Ṁ1,500 NO

@Ellis As far as I could tell from googling, Xi has never been on a podcast.

@EricNeyman biggest guest yet… in all of podcasting

Does this market resolve at the end of the current year? He said next few months in august

losing all my mana betting on gwern and roon

@beaver1 lol I don't even know who Roon is; a search turns up a dead Prussian named Albrecht Theodor Emil Graf von Roon

@AlQuinn he is a protagonist on tpot https://x.com/tszzl

@beaver1 Surely that makes him a bigger guest than Mark Zuckerberg

@Big0h Mark ZUCKERBERG! THE GUY FROM THE SOCIAL NETWORK MOTION PICTURE!?

bought Ṁ5 YES

@beaver1 You’ve got a different one, zuck was a side character in a slashfic

My thesis is that isn’t Elon, Obama, or Trump because it doesn’t make as much sense for them if the episode was to air after the election. Therefore I’m buying shares of Altman, Gates, Bezos, and Roon (if Dwarkesh was just memeing)

@PaperBoy among these only Gates may qualify as "more famous by far" than Mark Zuckerberg.

bought Ṁ100 NO

Put some no on elon, based on him being too busy being shadow president to do a podcast.

Is Obama a "big guest" in the current zeitgeist anymore? It's not 2012!

Much as they retain Secret Service protection, former presidents maintain a lifetime "big deal" status

@dlin007 Obama’s credibility in tatters at this point

@MichaelDickens I would have said that former UK PMs also retain their "big deal" status, though the timing suggests that the person Dwarkesh was talking is an even bigger deal.

bought Ṁ50 YES

@DylanBowman Is this market going to get resolved as N/A on December 1st if Dwarkesh doesn't say who his tweet was referring to by that date?

@WilliamKiely Thanks for pointing that out--I've extended the resolution date to mid-2025. Perhaps at some point in early 2025, if the market hasn't resolved, I'll reach out to Dwarkesh.

@DylanBowman If Dwarkesh says the guest fell through and it never happens will you resolve it to "no one"?

@squirrelfish So the creator's earlier comments below were pretty clear that unless a specific guest can be found that this refers to, it resolves N/A. so I am confident that would be covered under "the guest fell through". (It also means the option "No one, the tweet was a joke or intended to attract advertisers without referring to someone specific" should probably be edited to be INVALID because AFAIK, in that case, he would also plan to resolve it N/A).

That being said, the comments for this market are now very hard to scroll through, so if possible it would be nice if this clarification could be added to the market description itself.

It’s great to see that 1.7 million Mana has been bet on this very important question

@biased 😂

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