https://x.com/dwarkesh_sp/status/1826340260735058400
This market is specifically on whom the above tweet is referring to, regardless of whether the interview occurs.
1,000People are also trading
Curious why Barack is so low. He's cool, isn't he?
Here is a market for whether he will get Caro this year
@Simon74fe That is now @EricNeyman ’s fourth largest position (MrBeast YES). Either he has insider info or he was manipulating the market to avoid demotion as the league season end nears. Or some secret third thing. Eric?
Can @mods take over this market please? I don't really understand why there's a reason to leave market management and resolution up to an essentially inactive creator, after the market gets this large.
@bens Ohhhhhh wait I misread the market history, I thought he chose to suddenly close it but it seems he set it months ago to arbitrarily close now. Yeah, should clearly be re-opened in that case.
@MachiNi I assume some sort of shenanigans? Seems a shame for this market to be closed for trading soooo
@SorenJ the Manifold team is close with Dwarkesh so at some stage they're able the ask him. we wouldn't just NA a market of this size and would hope to find any other option to avoid that if possible.
@ian If Dwarkesh is under obligation not to reveal the name, how can the manifold team resolve this to the name of the person? That would automatically be grounds for NA. Like someone said earlier, this is definitely a cursed market
@Damin yes, there have been updates since clarifying that the original plans fell apart and dwarkesh was unsure if/when they would be rescheduled
@FriendlyMerc (1) that isn't possible & (2) the creator already clarified that would not be how it worked
@bananaLtsnh hi! welcome to the site!
happy to see you've got a nice market out there for traders, but please don't spam a bunch of unrelated markets with a link to it (I've seen this comment in multiple markets I'm in just now). thank you!