Who is Dwarkesh's upcoming "biggest guest yet"?
Standard
814
Ṁ870k
Dec 1
24%
Elon Musk
16%
Barack Obama
12%
Jeff Bezos
12%
Other
5%
Donald Trump
4%
Gwern Branwen
4%
Mr. Beast
3%
Sam Altman
3%
Bill Gates
2%
Geoffrey Hinton
1.5%
Robert Caro

https://x.com/dwarkesh_sp/status/1826340260735058400

This market is specifically on whom the above tweet is referring to, regardless of whether the interview occurs.

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Ṁ1,000
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No one, the tweet was a joke or intended to attract advertisers without referring to someone specific
sold Ṁ17 No one, the tweet wa... YES

@DylanBowman probably want to make this one invalid as well given that you said earlier that in this case it'd N/A?

@Ziddletwix Participants shouldn't have to read the whole comment section to find out if the market maker added resolution criteria. If "No one" resolves N/A that should be added to the question description.

@WilliamKiely Sure, they should add that to the description. But when anyone can add answers, it is impossible to avoid people adding answers that don't fit the question. I don't think it's surprising that when the question asks "Who", an answer of "no one" isn't a valid addition. But there's no way to litigate that without the creator chiming in. That's how open-addition markets have to work—people will add stuff that hasn't been vetted by the creator yet, and it might turn out to be invalid.

https://x.com/dwarkesh_sp/status/1841157109419032885

"Huawei outcomes Western firms regularly with 2 hands tied behind their back"

@dylan522p

"They go crazy because they think in 5 years they're going to fight a war with the United States"

@asianometry

Full episode out Wednesday

None of the answers were "Dwarkesh wasn't referring to a specific guest." If Dwarkesh wasn't referring to a specific guest, would it resolve to "Other" then? Or would it resolve ambiguous?

@WilliamKiely I think it should resolve to OTHER but the market creator has said it will be N/A’ed

@benshindel I'd agree that "Other" seems appropriate (and now "No one, the tweet was a joke or intended to attract advertisers without referring to someone specific" now that someone added that as an option), especially since the resolution criteria doesn't say anything about it resolving ambiguously in that instance. But I'm going to stay out of this market since it seems unclear.

@Lop this answer will not be entertained

@DylanBowman if you want to exclude this answer (& avoid people betting on it further), you should be able to edit the text? (e.g. to "INVALID")

@Ziddletwix I did it for him

Ben is not big compared to Zuck but he is a regular user of fantasy football website manifold

sold Ṁ3 Answer #sy6f2oictw YES

@beaver1 I'm biggest by at least one metric ;)

Gwern Branwen

plz delete this it's a duplicate of the Satoshi option

opened a Ṁ1,000 Answer #j4bhnwjgix NO at 10% order
bought Ṁ50 Gwern Branwen YES

I will continue to bet Ṁ50 every day on Gwern until morale improves.

Vivek Ramaswamy
bought Ṁ10 Vivek Ramaswamy YES

@benshindel He was just on another tech podcast; could be doing the rounds, would likely qualify by at least one metric as Dwarkesh's "biggest guest yet"

bought Ṁ5 Vivek Ramaswamy YES

@benshindel It’s possible. But why would he stoop so low?

@NicoDelon who? Dwarkesh or Vivek? lol

@benshindel by which metrics would he be bigger than Blair or Zuckerberg?

@TheAllMemeingEye most politically relevant guest? pop-culturally biggest? most likely to be president in the future? idk, definitely along some axis he is "bigger" than Zuck (Tony Blair isn't really "big" among Dwarkesh's audience lol, he was last relevant 17 years ago in an entirely different continent)

@TheAllMemeingEye almost every available answer is "bigger" by some metric. This is a red herring.

bought Ṁ1 Vivek Ramaswamy YES

Vivek is really cool but he's definitely not bigger than Zuckerberg.

sold Ṁ10 Jeff Bezos YES

@ZaneMiller He’s really cool?

@NicoDelon He's one of the few people on the right who actually has principles, and he's leading the push to shut down the bureaucracy.

bought Ṁ1 Donald Trump YES

@ZaneMiller Isn't he a wacky conspiracy theorist?

@TheAllMemeingEye he does think the FBI encouraged January 6 protestors to attack the capitol

@ZaneMiller What principles?

He's very libertarian even when that's acknowledgedly harmful for conservative or Republican goals, e.g. the whole thing about "we don't want to replace the left-wing nanny state with a right-wing nanny state; we want to dismantle the nanny state entirely." He cares a lot about free speech, which I suppose is just a special case of the aforementioned libertarianism.

He's also really committed to the idea of the American Dream, that America is this place where people can come and succeed on their own merit, and that Americans are united not by heritage or geography but by a set of ideals. (And that to the extent that this isn't currently true, we need to be doing everything we can to make it more true.)

@ZaneMiller He does seem more consistent on free speech than most on the left or the right, which is a good thing, I agree.

@ZaneMiller "Americans are united not by heritage or geography but by a set of ideals"?
Vivek Ramaswamy says he'll deport children of undocumented immigrants born in the U.S. (nbcnews.com)

@ZaneMiller Vivek literally said he wants to deport my girlfriend and you're telling me he's a principled libertarian. Fuck off.

@TiredCliche I do disagree with him on that; there's no meaningful difference between American-born children of illegal immigrants and any other American. They certainly didn't choose the circumstances of their birth. I think he's so attached to enforcing the so-called "rule of law" that he's not willing to question whether the law as he's interpreted it is actually just.

I'll note that in the case of young children, it's not obvious to me that they would be better off staying in the United States alone rather than being deported along with their parents.

also I don't see the point of responding to me with "fuck off".