https://x.com/dwarkesh_sp/status/1826340260735058400
This market is specifically on whom the above tweet is referring to, regardless of whether the interview occurs.
@jack Let me add a disclaimer that "free" is a joke. It's never free and there's always a risk. That said, my Yes bet is fairly low-information.
@Caseythezahima that could have been a joke about Gwern’s anonymity; it seems a very likely interpretation to me.
@MarkBowen i don't follow, care to elaborate? the tweet thread seems to be straightforwardly following this chain: dwarkesh says biggest guest upcoming -> could it be gwern -> gwern says no, the guest is monstrously more famous than me. gwern here is speaking as gwern, not whoever he actually is; there's no room for interpreting a 'split' whereby he implies gwern is more famous than his private identity (even if obviously true).
@Caseythezahima Presumptively GB would have at that point agreed to the terms of his interview where his answers are spoken by a different person. If GB is anonymous, then whoever that was is by definition more famous than GB is.
edit: deleted comment
edit: I guess I'll delete my comment too then
If he did Gwern everything is possible
@MalachiteEagle For the gwern podcast? It was a real, separate person reading gwern's responses line by line
@ian do you one this for a fact? Because @MalachiteEagle has a good point. I think it’s gwerns real inflection because I’m guessing that they fed gwerns real voice into eleven labs. I don’t believe that a non-gwern would have this inflection, nor are ANY ai voice cloners good enough to generate such perfect inflection
@crowlsyong it's clearly explained in the podcast description & substack post. why are people overthinking this. voice acting is the explanation you'd expect and it's exactly what dwarkesh says he did.
@MalachiteEagle The voice actor could be listening to the original audio and imitating it, which would keep the inflection