https://x.com/dwarkesh_sp/status/1826340260735058400
This market is specifically on whom the above tweet is referring to, regardless of whether the interview occurs.
1,000
1.00@DylanBowman probably want to make this one invalid as well given that you said earlier that in this case it'd N/A?
@Ziddletwix Participants shouldn't have to read the whole comment section to find out if the market maker added resolution criteria. If "No one" resolves N/A that should be added to the question description.
@WilliamKiely Sure, they should add that to the description. But when anyone can add answers, it is impossible to avoid people adding answers that don't fit the question. I don't think it's surprising that when the question asks "Who", an answer of "no one" isn't a valid addition. But there's no way to litigate that without the creator chiming in. That's how open-addition markets have to work—people will add stuff that hasn't been vetted by the creator yet, and it might turn out to be invalid.
https://x.com/dwarkesh_sp/status/1841157109419032885
"Huawei outcomes Western firms regularly with 2 hands tied behind their back"
"They go crazy because they think in 5 years they're going to fight a war with the United States"
Full episode out Wednesday
@benshindel I'd agree that "Other" seems appropriate (and now "No one, the tweet was a joke or intended to attract advertisers without referring to someone specific" now that someone added that as an option), especially since the resolution criteria doesn't say anything about it resolving ambiguously in that instance. But I'm going to stay out of this market since it seems unclear.
@DylanBowman if you want to exclude this answer (& avoid people betting on it further), you should be able to edit the text? (e.g. to "INVALID")
@benshindel He was just on another tech podcast; could be doing the rounds, would likely qualify by at least one metric as Dwarkesh's "biggest guest yet"
@TheAllMemeingEye most politically relevant guest? pop-culturally biggest? most likely to be president in the future? idk, definitely along some axis he is "bigger" than Zuck (Tony Blair isn't really "big" among Dwarkesh's audience lol, he was last relevant 17 years ago in an entirely different continent)
@NicoDelon He's one of the few people on the right who actually has principles, and he's leading the push to shut down the bureaucracy.
He's very libertarian even when that's acknowledgedly harmful for conservative or Republican goals, e.g. the whole thing about "we don't want to replace the left-wing nanny state with a right-wing nanny state; we want to dismantle the nanny state entirely." He cares a lot about free speech, which I suppose is just a special case of the aforementioned libertarianism.
He's also really committed to the idea of the American Dream, that America is this place where people can come and succeed on their own merit, and that Americans are united not by heritage or geography but by a set of ideals. (And that to the extent that this isn't currently true, we need to be doing everything we can to make it more true.)
@ZaneMiller He does seem more consistent on free speech than most on the left or the right, which is a good thing, I agree.
@ZaneMiller "Americans are united not by heritage or geography but by a set of ideals"?
Vivek Ramaswamy says he'll deport children of undocumented immigrants born in the U.S. (nbcnews.com)
@ZaneMiller Vivek literally said he wants to deport my girlfriend and you're telling me he's a principled libertarian. Fuck off.
@TiredCliche I do disagree with him on that; there's no meaningful difference between American-born children of illegal immigrants and any other American. They certainly didn't choose the circumstances of their birth. I think he's so attached to enforcing the so-called "rule of law" that he's not willing to question whether the law as he's interpreted it is actually just.
I'll note that in the case of young children, it's not obvious to me that they would be better off staying in the United States alone rather than being deported along with their parents.