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MANIFOLD
Who is Dwarkesh's upcoming "biggest guest yet"?
1.3k
Ṁ25kṀ4.2m
resolved Nov 2
100%98%
Robert Caro
0.1%
Barack Obama
0.0%
Justin Trudeau
0.0%
Brian Shaw (_biggest_ guest yet?)
0.1%
Elon Musk
0.0%
Donald Trump
0.0%
Kamala Harris
0.0%
Sam Altman
0.0%
Narendra Modi
0.0%
Xi Jinping
0.0%
Dalai Lama
0.0%
Jeff Bezos
0.0%
Buffett
0.0%
Taylor Swift
0.0%
Joe Biden
1.8%
Lebron James
0.0%
GPT-5
0.0%
Bill Clinton
0.0%
A basketball player
0.0%
Vladimir Putin

https://x.com/dwarkesh_sp/status/1826340260735058400

This market is specifically on whom the above tweet is referring to, regardless of whether the interview occurs.

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We need a wealth tax for Manifold with all this rising inequality @Bayesian @Joshua

The rich get richer and the poor stay poor.

@bens Joshua how much profit do you ascribe to your fold phone setup?

Truly one of the prediction markets of all time! A manifold legend, it's resolution as glorious as its life.

Like Anthropic IPO for SF, Manifold economy entirely fucked because of all the liquidity hitting the platform when this market resolves today.

Movie gif. Rowan Atkinson as Mr. Bean in Mr. Bean's Holiday, stands in a field of yellow flowers on a windy day. He looks off into the distance and then at his watch, before scratching his head.

I wonder why it took multiple years to organise this

Lmfao

Ok, time for this to resolve @DylanBowman @mods

@realTomBayes maybe we should give @DylanBowman to the end of the day to resolve? then i'm going for it lol.

can the mods do this, manifold will not let me

@DylanBowman Interesting. It's not letting me mod-resolve it either. "Transaction conflict. Please try again."

bought Ṁ100 YES

@dreev I managed to resolve it after a few transaction conflicts

ngl this is hilarious

@LeoSpitz

Dwarkesh Patel

Robert Caro, I can’t tell you how much of an honor it’s been. For six years that I’ve had this podcast, people will ask me, “Who is the person you most want to have on that you haven’t had on the podcast?” Every single time, I’ve said Robert Caro. So it’s a huge, huge honor. Thank you so much for doing this.

We already knew it but this can safely resolve to Caro.

I would be surprised if anyone I know has ever even heard of Robert Caro.

@AndrewHebb sorry for you

@AndrewHebb I also don't know this person

@Qoiuoiuoiu I've heard of him only because I listen to this podcast.

@Qoiuoiuoiu I am also in this comment section

sold Ṁ0 YES

What if he releases two episodes tomorrow?

@AndrewHebb with his other favorite author ever?

@MachiNi with someone bigger than his other guests

@AndrewHebb bigger than his favorite author ever?

@AndrewHebb resolves to whoever the tweet was referring to, as the description says