https://x.com/dwarkesh_sp/status/1826340260735058400
This market is specifically on whom the above tweet is referring to, regardless of whether the interview occurs.
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@bens He wasn't at Manifest this year 😢 .
I guess now might be an amusing time to reveal that I've known who the guest was all along and that Dwarkesh asked me not to say...
@galaga i do not think "unambiguous dominance" applies to almost anyone on the list? that's an unreasonable bar, given the context is just "Dwarkesh hyping up a guest to advertisers", some hyperbole is acceptable.
mr beast imo has a fairly strong case because he is reasonably distinct from other options. musk (let alone bezos/gates) is very big, but there is a pretty natural comparison between him & zuckerberg. there isn't another guest that is remotely similar to mr beast (& as jim says, he is an obvious draw for advertisers, arguably moreso than the tech ceos)
@Ziddletwix these are good points, though I would argue that Musk and Gates dominate his previous guests by being in the same vertical but higher, whereas MrBeast is somewhat not comparable
Plus if the take is about advertising revenue from the increased viewer draw, unclear what Dwarkesh can advertise to MrBeast type viewers that MrBeast has not captured himself
@dominic I’d agree with that, although I believe earlier some brits bristled at the idea because of tony Blair
Curious why Barack is so low. He's cool, isn't he?
Here is a market for whether he will get Caro this year