Who is Dwarkesh's upcoming "biggest guest yet"?
➕
Plus
977
Ṁ1.6m
Dec 1
27%
Elon Musk
15%
Other
11%
Gwern Branwen
11%
Barack Obama
8%
Jeff Bezos
5%
Donald Trump
3%
Bill Gates
3%
Sam Altman
3%
Mr. Beast
1.5%
roon
1.5%
Bill Clinton

https://x.com/dwarkesh_sp/status/1826340260735058400

This market is specifically on whom the above tweet is referring to, regardless of whether the interview occurs.

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Free 5000 Mana, just Buy NO on Gwern.

@WilliamKiely then why are you buying yes lol?

@jack Let me add a disclaimer that "free" is a joke. It's never free and there's always a risk. That said, my Yes bet is fairly low-information.

opened a Ṁ350 Barack Obama YES at 12% order

obama is the only one bigger than gwern

signal boosting: gwern himself says it is not him

@Caseythezahima that could have been a joke about Gwern’s anonymity; it seems a very likely interpretation to me.

@MarkBowen i don't follow, care to elaborate? the tweet thread seems to be straightforwardly following this chain: dwarkesh says biggest guest upcoming -> could it be gwern -> gwern says no, the guest is monstrously more famous than me. gwern here is speaking as gwern, not whoever he actually is; there's no room for interpreting a 'split' whereby he implies gwern is more famous than his private identity (even if obviously true).

@Caseythezahima Presumptively GB would have at that point agreed to the terms of his interview where his answers are spoken by a different person. If GB is anonymous, then whoever that was is by definition more famous than GB is.

edit: deleted comment

opened a Ṁ400 Gwern Branwen NO at 24% order

edit: I guess I'll delete my comment too then

bought Ṁ25 Answer #weey3ladef YES

If he did Gwern everything is possible

How did they create the voice of the avatar ?

@MalachiteEagle For the gwern podcast? It was a real, separate person reading gwern's responses line by line

@ian huh, that's really convincing voice acting to my ears

bought Ṁ250 Gwern Branwen YES

@ian do you one this for a fact? Because @MalachiteEagle has a good point. I think it’s gwerns real inflection because I’m guessing that they fed gwerns real voice into eleven labs. I don’t believe that a non-gwern would have this inflection, nor are ANY ai voice cloners good enough to generate such perfect inflection

It's in the description of the YouTube video. I went back and checked

"Thank you to my friend Chris Painter for doing an amazing job voice acting Gwern."

bought Ṁ150 Gwern Branwen YES

@MalachiteEagle welp. I cant argue with that

@crowlsyong it's clearly explained in the podcast description & substack post. why are people overthinking this. voice acting is the explanation you'd expect and it's exactly what dwarkesh says he did.

I wasn't overthinking it lol, I just didn't read the description or the post

Anyways, very skilled voice actor!

@Ziddletwix i WAS overthinking it and i apologize.

@crowlsyong maybe dwarkesh is lying

@MalachiteEagle The voice actor could be listening to the original audio and imitating it, which would keep the inflection

@kindgracekind oh yeah, pretty sure dwarkesh isn't lying and Chris Painter is a real person 😂

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