https://x.com/dwarkesh_sp/status/1826340260735058400
This market is specifically on whom the above tweet is referring to, regardless of whether the interview occurs.
1,000
3.00@beaver1 lol I don't even know who Roon is; a search turns up a dead Prussian named Albrecht Theodor Emil Graf von Roon
@MichaelDickens I would have said that former UK PMs also retain their "big deal" status, though the timing suggests that the person Dwarkesh was talking is an even bigger deal.
@DylanBowman Is this market going to get resolved as N/A on December 1st if Dwarkesh doesn't say who his tweet was referring to by that date?
@WilliamKiely Thanks for pointing that out--I've extended the resolution date to mid-2025. Perhaps at some point in early 2025, if the market hasn't resolved, I'll reach out to Dwarkesh.
@DylanBowman If Dwarkesh says the guest fell through and it never happens will you resolve it to "no one"?
@squirrelfish So the creator's earlier comments below were pretty clear that unless a specific guest can be found that this refers to, it resolves N/A. so I am confident that would be covered under "the guest fell through". (It also means the option "No one, the tweet was a joke or intended to attract advertisers without referring to someone specific" should probably be edited to be INVALID because AFAIK, in that case, he would also plan to resolve it N/A).
That being said, the comments for this market are now very hard to scroll through, so if possible it would be nice if this clarification could be added to the market description itself.
@jack Let me add a disclaimer that "free" is a joke. It's never free and there's always a risk. That said, my Yes bet is fairly low-information.
@Caseythezahima that could have been a joke about Gwern’s anonymity; it seems a very likely interpretation to me.
@MarkBowen i don't follow, care to elaborate? the tweet thread seems to be straightforwardly following this chain: dwarkesh says biggest guest upcoming -> could it be gwern -> gwern says no, the guest is monstrously more famous than me. gwern here is speaking as gwern, not whoever he actually is; there's no room for interpreting a 'split' whereby he implies gwern is more famous than his private identity (even if obviously true).
@Caseythezahima Presumptively GB would have at that point agreed to the terms of his interview where his answers are spoken by a different person. If GB is anonymous, then whoever that was is by definition more famous than GB is.