https://x.com/dwarkesh_sp/status/1826340260735058400
This market is specifically on whom the above tweet is referring to, regardless of whether the interview occurs.
1,000
3.00a month ago he posted a tweet suggesting that the interview had not happened yet. His interviews of Paine had already occurred (though not yet released as part of the podcast).
@NicoDelon yeah he essentially said it wasn’t Sarah but some other guest TBD. Nobody should hold this. It’s ruled out.
@LeoSpitz Are you aware of this tweet https://x.com/dwarkesh_sp/status/1872722285066662097, which was posted about a month after the release of the Gwern podcast?
@No_uh This market cannot resolve to no one, that’s not a person, that option shoukd be edited to something like [invalid] (edit: i think / in my opinion / i was sounding more authoritative than I intended)
@Bayesian Yeah FWIW this was clarified early quite explicitly by the creator (it must resolves to a real option or N/A, "no one" is not a valid option nor is that covered by "other").
The problem is this is WAY down in the comments, and there's no way anyone can reasonably see this.
@DylanBowman would you mind adding this clarification explicitly to the market description? I might temporarily pin a comment with this screenshot to the market (as I'm just linking to your own comment, not adding my own editorializing), but I don't want to edit the description without your permission.
@No_uh beyond that clarification (about the market N/A-ing if there's no guest it refers to), note the comment below with the tweet from Dwarkesh.
So it's not forgotten about, there is definitely a real potential guest that Dwarkesh was referring to. But it may not happen. (I don't know what the creator would do in the niche case that we learn with confident who Dwarkesh was referring to at the time but the interview doesn't happen).
This market is specifically on whom the above tweet is referring to, regardless of whether the interview occurs.
also i think the creator said he might ask who the tweet was about
@ismellpillows oh good point, so yeah the interview doesn't need to happen, it would likely only N/A if Dwarkesh chooses not to reveal the answer (or for some other edge case)
@Ziddletwix ty to you and @Bayesian both!
i understand market makers intentions. but i will be a lil salty if dwarkesh later is just like 'nah this was not referring to anybody, just baiting hype' and we get N/A lol
Don't forget the "No one, the tweet was a joke or intended to attract advertisers without referring to someone specific" option if it comes out this was in fact all just a ploy.
Seems unlikely to me, but stranger things have happened.
I'm happy for leaving a bunch of time before N/A-ing the market, this was about who the tweet/X post was about, not them actually being an upcoming guest so we could find out in a retrospective 'remember that tweet back in 2024, yeah man we were in negotiations with Elvis Presley's ghost to come on but it never came to fruition' comment.
@No_uh Look, probably not particularly well...
Coffee #3 of the day is only starting to kick in and I'm battling a needy (and kneady) kitten for control of the keyboard, so mea cupla if I added nothing useful/was flat out an idiot.
@PaulBenjaminPhotographer TL;DR, market creator apparently said it can't resolve to "no one", so it's an impossible option. Should've never been added by someone, and I'm a FOOL FOR BETTING ON IT!!
Heads up y'all Zelenskyy just did Lex Fridman, could be about to do Dwarkesh too
@TheAllMemeingEye Didn’t people say that when he interviewed Trump too? Zelenskyy is a bit likelier because of Patel’s interest in military history, but I’m not convinced there’s any kind of cue to take from Fridman.
@NicoDelon in my opinion it's not so much that Patel would be copying Fridman so much as Zelenskyy might be trying to go on a western media blitz