https://x.com/dwarkesh_sp/status/1826340260735058400
This market is specifically on whom the above tweet is referring to, regardless of whether the interview occurs.
What the hell is going on with this one? @Mira we know you like to pull pranks but maybe you actually have some insider information. In what world are they the biggest guest though?
PS: I do understand that they/he is admired in the community, including by Dwarkesh, but I'm not sure I understand how that justifies such a difference in pricing with many other options below.
@NicoDelon i happen to have very insider info on why people think this is likely, and even more insider info on why it might still not happen
@MattF hm I don’t doubt that gwern could be a guest, but I have extreme doubt that he would be the one referred to in this market
@DylanBowman How would you handle the following situation?
The guest is not listed, so Other would resolve YES
The podcast is released and the guest’s identity is revealed
A trader adds the guest as an option, which means Other now resolves NO
The trader then profits by buying a shitton of NO
@biased I guess the timestamp of the newly added option should be checked? If the reveal of the guest's identity was before the added option, then the added option should be N/Aed.
That doesn’t address my proposed situation, which said that a fast-fingered trader would add the real guest as an option then short Other into the ground and make a ton of profit.
The Other option is easily exploited when a market doesn’t have a known resolution time, as an option can always be added for the revealed true thing once the event has happened.
@biased All of those who bought Other will get shares in the newly added option, so they wont mind. The one who adds the option will get a mana boost by adding a new option compared to just betting up Other, but most of the mana will be made by betting the correct option (either specific person or Other) to 100% anyway as in any other market. So I wouldnt lose sleep over it.
@biased There is no problem with the other option. The only thing is that once the guest is revealed, someone can take all of the liquidity pool
@biased I think you're misunderstanding how Other shares work. If I buy 500 shares of "Other" and then someone adds, let's say, Blorg Shmorgus as soon as they realize Blorg Shmorgus is the "biggest guest", then I still get 500 shares when that resolves YES.
There's no difference between a fast-fingered person reacting to the news, creating Blorg Shmorgus, and betting everything else down than a fast-fingered person reacting to the news that it is, say, Barack Obama, and betting that up and everything else down.
So sure, the first person to react to news profits! But this is not unique to new answers being split off from Other.
@NicoDelon He talks to world class:
AI researchers
Historians
Economists
Financiers
Politicians
I wonder if 5/72 (7%) is a in line with what the distribution of *world class* people in those categories is. If women are not better represented than that ratio in the top end of these fields, then Dwarkesh shouldn't be interviewing them at a higher ratio than that.
At NeurIPS (most prestigious AI conf), only 3% of award winning authors are women
Only 3% of Nobel Prize Laureates in Economics are women
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_female_Nobel_laureates
A study examining popular history books published for general readers in 2015 found that:
75.8% of the total titles had male authors, meaning approximately 24.2% had female authors.
In Dwarkesh Universe Robert Caro is GOAT. Dwarkesh has previously tweeted about wanting to interview him and Caro has been on a podcast as recent as 7 months ago.
@TobiasH He mentions advertisers in his tweet which implies the guest is not just someone he personally likes but a well-known person who will bring in a ton of views (considering be’s already had people like Zuck, Tony Blair etc that’s saying something). Caro is beloved in certain circles but he doesn’t fit that bill.