Includes all cabinet-level and department-level positions, including ones created within his first 365 days. To resolve yes, a person must SERVE as a cabinet position - a nomination is insufficient to resolve an answer to YES. Acting secretaries count.
The positions that would resolve to YES are as follows:
The heads of the executive departments
Vice President (please don't submit this one)
Secretary of State
Secretary of the Treasury
Secretary of Defense
Attorney General
Secretary of the Interior
Secretary of Agriculture
Secretary of Commerce
Secretary of Labor
Secretary of Health and Human Services (HHS)
Seecretary of Housing and Urban Development (HUD)
Secretary of Transportation
Secretary of Energy
Secretary of Education
Secretary of Veterans Affairs (VA)
Secretary of Homeland Security
Cabinet-level officials
Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA)
Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB)
Director of National Intelligence
Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA)
Trade Representative
Ambassador to the United Nations
Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA)
Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA)
Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP)
White House Chief of Staff
As well as
Any other cabinet position created through an act of Congress
Any other position that the President appoints the status of Cabinet-rank
Note: The President is allowed to designate a position to be a member of the cabinet. In the unlikely scenario where a position is removed from being cabinet-rank before it is filled, it'll resolve NO.
Update 2025-02-04 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Clarification on Specific Positions:
Tom Homan's role as "Border Czar" does not count as a cabinet position unless officially elevated by the President.
Mike Waltz's role as "National Security Advisor" does not count as a cabinet position unless officially elevated by the President.
Update 2025-02-07 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Important Clarification:
The market will resolve based on the positions listed at the time of market creation.
In addition, any position officially elevated to cabinet-level during Trump's first year will be considered for a YES resolution.
This clarification applies regardless of any subsequent changes in the cabinet makeup.
1,000It has come to my attention that Trump's cabinet makeup may have already changed from what is listed in this market's description - some positions, such as CEA ambassador, are no longer listed at the cabinet level.
However, due to the wording I used in this market at time of creation, ("the positions that will resolve yes are as follows") I will be resolving based on any of the positions already listed AS WELL AS any positions elevated to cabinet level. I don't believe this actually affects this market at all - I'm pretty sure no one in the affected positions were ever added to this market.
they confirmed Duffy but no one even cared enough about him to put him on here lmfao
Anyway, the Senate will have the confirmation hearings for both of the Real Contentious Picks - Tulsi and RFK - on Wednesday and Thursday this week. Not certain on when they'll hold the vote to confirm, but I'm expecting at least one to be confirmed before the weekend's over.
Rubio has been confirmed. No one listed is serving in an acting role yet, as per https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2025/01/designation-of-acting-leaders/
Check out this market to bet on what Trump will say in Year 1 https://manifold.markets/Houston2025/what-words-or-phrases-will-trump-sa
@Marnix Forgive me if this has been specified elsewhere, but US Ambassador to the United Nations counts as being in the Cabinet?
@Kraalnaxx Yep! I'm just gonna go ahead and write up all the ones that count and put those in the description, I think lmao
@shankypanky what exactly is a department-level position and does national security advisor count?
@Fay42 Department-level ones are just the obvious ones — DOT, DOJ, HHS, HUD, etc.
Cabinet-level are the other ones - EPA admin, Director of National Intelligence, Chief of Staff, etc.
National Security Advisor does not currently count. it did for a time (Jimmy Carter made it cabinet level, I believe), but hasn't since 1981. It could be elevated again if Trump wants, but he hasn't given any indication he would.
I've been working off of this Wikipedia article: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cabinet_of_the_United_States
@Kraalnaxx Not particularly - at this point, there's still shortlists, and once someone's announced there's still the (admittedly slim) chance that whatever person gets picked doesn't ever get to serve, either because the Senate refuses to confirm them or they suddenly die or something.
Vivek has made the shortlist for Secretary of State, according to The American Conservative. https://www.theamericanconservative.com/vivek-ramaswamy-dark-horse-secretary-of-state-candidate/
Trump has named Stephen Miller will serve as his Deputy Chief of Policy — a role in that is NOT a cabinet position. https://apnews.com/live/house-senate-trump-election-updates-11-11-24#00000193-1c05-d712-abdb-dd8d5e630000
We're already getting a few picks - Susie Wilds as Chief of Staff, and according to FT he's likely to give Linda McMahon secretary of commerce. Jared Kushner also stated that won't take an admin position.
Title and description have also been changed slightly, to reflect the fact that Trump has been elected, and that answers will not resolve yes until the person actually serves!
@Marnix We hope for a Mars-sized planetoid to collide with the Earth, ending all life swiftly and painlessly. The most humane outcome.
@PlasmaBallin But do you think the planetoid will be in the cabinet proper or just a senior advisor role