Who will leave Trump's cabinet first?

MANIFOLD

Ṁ1kṀ19k

2029

45%

Kristi Noem (Secretary of Homeland Security)

15%

Pete Hegseth (Secretary of Defense)

10%

Pam Bondi (Attorney General)

Tulsi Gabbard (Director of National Intelligence)

Susie Wiles (Chief of Staff)

Lori Chavez-DeRemer (Secretary of Labor)

RFK Jr. (Secretary of HHS)

1.6%

JD Vance (Vice President)

1.5%

Marco Rubio (Secretary of State)

1.3%

Howard Lutnick (Secretary of Commerce)

Russel Vought (OMB director)

Doug Burgum (Secretary of the Interior)

Mike Waltz (or confirmed UN Ambassador)

John Ratcliffe (Director of the CIA)

Brooke Rollins (Secretary of Agriculture)

Kelly Loeffler (Administrator of the Small Business Administration)

Chris Wright (Secretary of Energy)

Lee Zeldin (EPA administrator)

Scott Turner (HUD Secretary)

Doug Collins (Secretary of Veterans Affairs)

These are the 24 members of Trump's cabinet (his 16 "proper" Cabinet members + his 8 Cabinet-level members). Who will leave first? The way they leave the role doesn't matter (resignation, impeachment, and death all count). A role ceasing to exist (i.e., the Dept. of Education being abolished by congress) also counts.

In the unlikely event Trump makes it all the way through his term with none of these people leaving his cabinet, this question will resolve N/A. In the unlikely event Trump dies, this question resolves to Vance (since he will have become the president, which is technically not a cabinet position).

In the event multiple people leave simultaneously, this market resolves percent, split between all involved.

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bought Ṁ10 YES

Y'all are sleeping on Noem having major health problems.

opened a Ṁ1,000 NO at 30% order

I've set a NO limit bid at 30% on Bondi. but I'm only going to leave it up for a day or two.

bought Ṁ1 YES

this shouldn't include Matt Whitaker. he's the ambassador to NATO, which isn't a cabinet position. the cabinet position is the ambassador to the UN, which still hasn't been filled. (Mike Waltz is the current nominee.)