Who will leave (or resign from) Trump's cabinet first?
75
1kṀ14k
2029
28%
Pam Bondi (Attorney General)
19%
Pete Hegseth (Secretary of Defense)
18%
Tulsi Gabbard (Director of National Intelligence)
5%
Kristi Noem (Secretary of Homeland Security)
4%
Howard Lutnick (Secretary of Commerce)
3%
Scott Bessent (Secretary of the Treasury)
2%
John Ratcliffe (Director of the CIA)
1.6%
RFK Jr. (Secretary of HHS)
1.6%
Marco Rubio (Secretary of State)
1.4%
Jamieson Greer (US Trade Representative)
1.1%
Doug Burgum (Secretary of the Interior)
1.1%
Mike Waltz (or confirmed UN Ambassador)
1.1%
Brooke Rollins (Secretary of Agriculture)
1.1%
Kelly Loeffler (Administrator of the Small Business Administration)
1.1%
Chris Wright (Secretary of Energy)
1.1%
Lee Zeldin (EPA administrator)
1.1%
Scott Turner (HUD Secretary)
1.1%
Doug Collins (Secretary of Veterans Affairs)
1.1%
Lori Chavez-DeRemer (Secretary of Labor)
1.1%
Sean Duffy (Secretary of Transportation)

NOTE: This will only resolve to someone who has actually assumed office. If anyone currently listed isn't confirmed by the senate, their name will be replaced with whoever the next person nominated is until someone's in the office on a permanent basis. (In the event Trump lets a temporary appointment stay in that role with no intention of replacing them, I'll just add them after a few months).

These are the 24 members of Trump's cabinet (his 16 "proper" Cabinet members + his 8 Cabinet-level members). Which role will be vacated first? Quitting, being fired, resigning in disgrace, dying - the method by which they leave doesn't actually matter for the purposes of this question.

In the unlikely event Trump makes it all the way through his term with none of these people leaving his cabinet, this question will resolve N/A.

In the unlikely event Trump dies, this question resolves to Vance (since he will have become the president, which is not a cabinet position).

In the event that multiple people resign simultaneously, this market will split equally between them.

  • Update 2025-06-20 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has confirmed that Matt Whitaker (Ambassador to NATO) was included as an answer option by mistake, as this is not a cabinet-level position. This option is not a valid answer and will be corrected.

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