These are the 24 members of Trump's cabinet (his 16 "proper" Cabinet members + his 8 Cabinet-level members). Who will leave first? The way they leave the role doesn't matter (resignation, impeachment, and death all count). A role ceasing to exist (i.e., the Dept. of Education being abolished by congress) also counts.
In the unlikely event Trump makes it all the way through his term with none of these people leaving his cabinet, this question will resolve N/A. In the unlikely event Trump dies, this question resolves to Vance (since he will have become the president, which is technically not a cabinet position).
In the event multiple people leave simultaneously, this market resolves percent, split between all involved.
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Miran does not count for this market. Putting aside the fact I can't add it, head of the Council of Economic Advisers is not a cabinet level position under this administration
@Marnix only 2 of 15 cabinet members failed to serve out their 4-year term in the last administration. I think ppl are way over-indexing on Trump-45 and base rates. Times have changed. Cabinet jobs are where shills go to stay now.
@Marnix also why would anyone ever want to leave a cabinet position during an era with the highest power for cabinet-level officials in the history of the United States? These ppl are Gods. No congressional oversight. Scandals don't matter. Extreme executive authority. They already have to suck up to Trump anyway. And they're cancelled as all heck if they leave the government.
@ZaneMiller Oop, looks like i forgot to change that when the pick changed. Dunno where Whitaker came from though
oops didn't read the description