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MANIFOLD
Which members of Trump's current cabinet will leave their posts before the first 100 days of the new Congress are over?
0
Ṁ525
2027
50%
Scott Bessent - Secretary of the Treasury
50%
Todd Blanche - Attorney General
50%
Doug Burgum - Secretary of the Interior
50%
Jay Clayton - Director of National Intelligence
50%
Doug Collins - Secretary of Veterans Affairs
50%
Sean Duffy - Secretary of Transportation
50%
Jamieson Greer - United States Trade Representative
50%
Pete Hegseth - Secretary of War
50%
Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. - Secretary of Health and Human Services
50%
Kelly Loeffler - Administrator of the Small Business Administration
50%
Howard Lutnick - Secretary of Commerce
50%
Linda McMahon - Secretary of Education
50%
Markwayne Mullin - Secretary of Homeland Security
50%
John Ratcliffe - Director of the Central Intelligence Agency
50%
Brooke Rollins - Secretary of Agriculture
50%
Marco Rubio - Secretary of State
50%
Keith Sonderling - Secretary of Labor
50%
Scott Turner - Secretary of Housing and Urban Development
50%
Russ Vought - Director of the Office of Management and Budget
50%
Chris Wright - Secretary of Energy

Each market will resolve "Yes" if the person listed leaves the office stated before noon on April 13, 2027. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". This covers leaving their post by any means and for any reason. The fact that a person listed takes another post in the administration, including one that is listed at this cabinet level, will not change the result.

This list is compiled from the White House website for the Cabinet.

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Should there be a dispute, the rules provided will control over the answer to the question itself. While the question is intended to provide an easy way for people to bet on their beliefs, it is not the end-all, be-all, and all traders should look at the rules. Please don't hesitate to ask clarifying questions in the comments. In the unlikely event of significant ambiguity regarding whether the resolution criteria have been met. I reserve the right to resolve a question to a percentage that I deem fair or N/A the market. I will give notice before I do this.

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